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Global Markets Analysis – 17 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.02.2016 周三 油脂类商品盘中走势小心翼翼;短线多单交易者保持谨慎心态

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间中阴K线带上下影线收盘,未能延续3颗红小兵之后的继续走强,盘中表现微妙,期价在2015年12月初时候的前高位置出现技术压力,是突破该阻挡?还是在该位置承压?尚不能给出明确技术信号,因此后市美盘豆油的具体走势的方向性指引就显得尤为重要,从日K线图表上短线观察-当前位置是个可上也可下的技术位置。我们继续关注美盘豆油的具体表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,在春节长假开盘后,跳空高开补涨,由于跳空高开太多,豆油1605合约出现回补跳空缺口,当前期价回落到缺口上方的5日均线附近,关注该品种回补缺口后的后市表现,若下破5日均线短多止损。棕榈油1605主力合约近2日走势稍强,节后的补涨行情延续中,期价也未出现豆油那样大的回落幅度,整体运行在2015年10月15日与12月底的前高之上,建议关注美盘更明确的走势指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,期价反弹上行到进2年来的高位后,本周开盘后同样出现冲高回落的阴K线,连续3天的阴K线在跳空缺口位置徘徊,若再得不到成交量的有效放大配合,不能向上远离该缺口,则短线行情也处于个可上也可下的微妙位置, 继续关注该跳空缺口的支撑效力。

小结:本周一开盘后,内盘与马盘油脂商品的上涨动能出现动摇,虽不能明确指定商品形成了冲高回落走势,但期价补涨之后的在跳空缺口位置的犹豫徘徊令盘面显得小心翼翼,特别是内盘豆油与马盘毛棕榈油-向上跳空之后的3跟小阴K线,确实让短线交易者内心不安,我们暂且把短线多单的止损位就设置在跳空缺口位置,若后市短线上行动能仍不能放大,下破该跳空缺口后,我们短线多单可平仓离场,内盘棕榈油短线走势较强,短线多单暂且持有。另外中长线多单继续持有。同时关注美盘豆油未来几天的表现,我们操作理念上暂且以短线交易为主,不过多长周期角度的预测行情。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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