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Global Markets Analysis – 17 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.02.2017 周五 国家疾病预防控制局公布新利空消息—-中国感染H7N9禽流感疫情蔓延

美盘豆油5月合约, 短线下挫态势延续中,当前期价已经来到我们昨天预测的33.50—33.70一线,从日K线图表观察,2017.1.30日的长阴K线低点36.10位置不能阻挡住当前的疲软态势(支撑不住),后市短线期价仍有小幅下滑可能。当前美盘油脂商品的利空因素主要表现在巴西大豆收获季正在进行中(已经收获20%左右),巴西新豆上市对美盘带来不利影响。

国家卫计委疾病预防控制局14日发布2017年1月全国法定传染病疫情概况—-感染H7N9禽流感发病数192例死亡数79人。当前中国南方部分城市疫情严重(安徽 湖南 浙江 广东),部分活禽交易屠宰市场已经关闭或休市—春季是禽流感疫情易发高发阶段,这对当前养殖户带来不利心理影响(大量活禽被集中扑杀 掩埋)。 严重的是这种恐慌情绪蔓延到金融期货市场—内盘豆粕豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,今天周五盘面出现恐慌性长阴急跌,下跌幅度超出预期。春节过后中国各大油厂陆续开工,这是内盘油脂商品压力所在。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,今天周五盘面受周边外围市场(特别是内盘)利空情绪影响,同样出现低开低走下跌,另外对马来西亚2月份棕榈油产量提高的担忧也对马盘市场起到推波助澜作用。

小结:大陆内盘突现新的利空因素(H7N9禽流感),美盘短线“底背离”下探延续中,马盘受恐慌情绪影响严重,今天油脂商品整体市场利空情绪弥漫,期价出现大幅急挫现象,加速探底的迹象非常明显,唯一给予我们信心的是美盘豆油中线角度的下挫整理处于结束尾声阶段,我们不很看空美豆油多少。继续等待美豆油低点的接盘机会。由于内盘马盘油脂商品的急跌,我们短线多单大多被套,前2日我们就预感本次操作处于尴尬境界,此次也只能继续忍受折磨,但我们不建议空单追进,只等待低位的多单补仓操作,后市的市场节奏是这样的—-急挫下跌寻支撑(美盘正在加速进行中)—然后超跌后反弹(未发生)—-反弹到一定高度后多单出局(后期计划)—最后在反弹高位逢高放空布局(后话)。由于上周我们在短线小节拍上踩错节奏,此刻我们心理上要学会承受该压力。多忍耐几天吧。(但也请放心,我们不会就此认输出局的)

[SUMMARY]
• With the outbreak of H7N9 in China, and the fall in edible oil prices of US and Malaysia, the downtrend of edible oils accelerates.
• The only consolation is that the downward reversal of US soybean oil is nearing the end.
• The fall in China and Malaysia edible oils has hurt our long positions, but we do not recommend to go short and follow the trend.

[ACTION]
• Traders may patiently wait for an opportunity to reverse losing positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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