Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 17 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

17.02.2017 周五 国家疾病预防控制局公布新利空消息—-中国感染H7N9禽流感疫情蔓延

美盘豆油5月合约, 短线下挫态势延续中,当前期价已经来到我们昨天预测的33.50—33.70一线,从日K线图表观察,2017.1.30日的长阴K线低点36.10位置不能阻挡住当前的疲软态势(支撑不住),后市短线期价仍有小幅下滑可能。当前美盘油脂商品的利空因素主要表现在巴西大豆收获季正在进行中(已经收获20%左右),巴西新豆上市对美盘带来不利影响。

国家卫计委疾病预防控制局14日发布2017年1月全国法定传染病疫情概况—-感染H7N9禽流感发病数192例死亡数79人。当前中国南方部分城市疫情严重(安徽 湖南 浙江 广东),部分活禽交易屠宰市场已经关闭或休市—春季是禽流感疫情易发高发阶段,这对当前养殖户带来不利心理影响(大量活禽被集中扑杀 掩埋)。 严重的是这种恐慌情绪蔓延到金融期货市场—内盘豆粕豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,今天周五盘面出现恐慌性长阴急跌,下跌幅度超出预期。春节过后中国各大油厂陆续开工,这是内盘油脂商品压力所在。



• With the outbreak of H7N9 in China, and the fall in edible oil prices of US and Malaysia, the downtrend of edible oils accelerates.
• The only consolation is that the downward reversal of US soybean oil is nearing the end.
• The fall in China and Malaysia edible oils has hurt our long positions, but we do not recommend to go short and follow the trend.

• Traders may patiently wait for an opportunity to reverse losing positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


Share and Enjoy:
[] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here


OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.