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Global Markets Analysis – 14 March 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


日周五 回落整理进行中,短空操作可延续

大陆油脂现货价格:截止到昨天,国内港口24度棕榈油现货价格整体平稳,天津港24度精炼棕榈油集中报价6300元/吨,日照港报价6250元/吨,张家港报价6300元/吨,宁波港地区报价6550元/吨,广州港报价6250元/吨。

豆油现货报价,华北天津地区四级豆油报价7050元/吨,华东江苏地区报价7050–7100元/吨,华南广东地区报价7050元/吨,港口毛豆油分销价维持在7050元/吨。

油脂类商品走到本周五,本周的行情已经基本明朗,马来西亚毛棕榈油5月,自从见高点2916后已经连续4天阴K线下跌,今天早盘大跳空低开,令我们预期的回落整理行情更加得以确认,回抽确认进行中。大陆内盘油脂品种 豆油 棕榈油1405合约,早盘跳空后 低开低走,上午中阴K线报收,我们预测的补跌走势在今天也得到体现,回落整理行情进行中。

美盘黄豆连昨晚冲高回落,带上影十字星收盘,表明回落整理仍未结束。美盘豆油已经连续 5-6天阴K线下跌走势,回抽确认A浪上涨的可靠性正在进行中,后市仍将寻找下方的支撑位置。

小结:今天周五,我们从周初所预测和预期的行情,行情走到今天,再回头观察本周的走势,突然间就有豁然开朗的感觉,行情走势基本上沿我们文字所描述的划线痕迹运行。本周个人观点和看法,我们前几天已经描述了不少,特别是周三所文字描述的行情走势,隐隐就是一张走势图形。该减的仓单周初早已经了结,再下跌多少已经和我们没有关系。 稳健者场外观望的同时,我们今天对激进短线操作者在这多说几句(趋势操作者已经提前说过了), 该类人士逢高放空短线操作时,内心一定要明确,本波B浪回调是在均线多头排列前提下进行的,不能以为平多反空赚钱了就洋洋得意起来,待期价回落到A浪第一波上涨的黄金分割点0.618位置,所做空单就需要谨慎, 极限位置放大到50%回撤,目前下方的具体支撑位置在何处,现在就下结论还为时过早。由于是反第一波上涨趋势下短线操作,所以短线操作者一定内心要有个大局观,明白自己该干什么,不该干什么,先知先觉为上策。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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