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Global Markets Analysis – 17 March 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.03.2015 周二 马来西亚4月份起重征棕榈油出口关税

周一马来西亚政府公告显示:将从今年4月份开始复征棕榈油出口关税,这表明从去年9月份开始的零出口关税政策被终结,从4月份开始以4.5%对棕榈油出口征税。这对马盘毛棕榈油后期出口造成不利影响,形成利空压力。马盘毛棕榈油基准5约合,昨天低开低走,终盘以带下影线阴K线收盘,今天周二早盘,延续疲软走势继续保持下行,短线的下挫整理进行中,建议操作上仍以逢高短空手法操作。

美盘豆油5月合约,短线的回落整理行情延续,期价继续在30.00一线震荡,我们技术上继续关注1月29日的低点29.56位置的市场表现,该位置的技术含义一定要引起我们的注意。若该低点被下破则短线上就还存在猛的下蹲动作,若该点支撑有效则会形成双重底技术走势。因此形成短线角度的多空分水岭。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,近期追随美盘豆油下挫,昨天盘中出现急跌加速迹象,长下影线探底,是否探底成功尚待继续观察。

国际原油市场近期也出现波动,其中美原油短线也出现下跌,美元指数的惯性发力上冲对以美元计价商品压力较大。当前美原油期价下破60天均线后,脱离50.00美元整数位置,短线走软,今天周二期价位于46.00一线下挫整理。美原油短线技术方面也同美豆油技术形态类似,后市同样存在考验前低(1月29日43.58的低点)的支撑效果。

小结:美元指数冲高到100.00整数关处高位震荡,短线出现动能衰减迹象,是否形成冲高回落尚需我们关注,美豆油与美原油技术上等待确认在前低的技术表现。当前油脂类商品走到关键处,市场表现微妙。我们一定要打起精神密切关注。大观点上认为继续保持筑大底观点不变。短线角度继续以回落整理下探寻支撑走势看待。个人建议短线激进者继续逢高短空手法操作,日内平仓。中长线稳健操作者继续场外观望,等待市场指引。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 










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