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Global Markets Analysis – 17 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.03.2016 周四 美盘豆油5月合约期价已经触及到上升通道的上边轨目标位置

美盘豆油5月合约目前运行到关键位置了,今天周四亚洲电子盘期价已经触及到原来上升通道上边轨位置 32.90一线,2016年2月16日的高点32.43已经被向上突破,符合我们的预期。但更前面一个高点2015年12月7日的 32.77高位正在被接受挑战,收盘价格未明朗,尚不能确定该位置是否也被突破。从技术形态上分析-当前美盘豆油存在2种技术形态后市走势1)2015年12月7 日、2016年2月16日、3月17日三重顶的可能。2)2016年1月12日与2016年3月2日,W型 双重底的可能。这个关键时刻来判断到底后市运行那种技术形态,当前来说技术难度有点大,不可武断评价,我们一定要关注32.90价格与美豆油的后市具体表现。 我们暂时继续保持短多观点。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,在今天美盘豆油继续红盘上涨触及上边轨时候,内盘油脂商品的上涨动能被调动起来,周四盘中均表现为增仓中长阳上行-多头主力进场拉升迹象明显,散户朋友短线多单谨慎性继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,在美盘豆油、美盘原油、内盘豆油、棕榈油普遍走高上行带动下,马棕榈油今天周四盘中也出现中阳上涨,2016年2月15日的前高2631令吉特被向上击破,我们一直以来的短线反弹上行观点被证实。在外围市场未出现明显受阻情况下,我们继续保持短多思路对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品普遍走高,美盘豆油达到目标关键位,我们在保持短多思路前提下,随着期价不断上行,我们内心也要悄悄引起警惕思维-谨防美盘豆油受阻后变盘的情况发生,这点虽然还未发生,但一定要引起我们内心的警惕。个人建议操作上:中长线多单继续持有,短线激进操作者手中的反手多单谨慎持有,期价越上涨;谨慎心态更要打足精神;不可得意洋洋以及疏忽大意而让手中利润化作泡影-心中提前的预防针永远不会错。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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