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Global Markets Analysis – 17 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.05.2016 周二 美盘豆油截止到今天期价尚在原先的上升通道中运行;等待明确的指引

美盘豆油7月合约,上周五(5月13日)的带下影线小阴K线在趋势线位置略有支撑,昨天周一晚间又红盘报收于趋势线价格之上,当前期价仍在关键趋势线位置接受考验。是支撑有效?还是下破支撑?目前尚不能给出明确答复。我们也仅能知道当前美豆油期价仍处于原来的上升通道的下边轨关键位置(附图),后市短线我们继续关注在这一位置的具体表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609 主力合约,在期价下破60天均线后,今天周二盘中出现多头主力抵抗,截止到目前,期价红盘运行,在美盘豆油是否下破趋势线尚不能给出明确答案前,内盘油脂商品将做抵抗性波动。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月与前基准的7月合约,二者短线走势相似,但7月持仓量稍微大些,从日K线图表上观察,7月期价上周五阴K线跳空下跌靠近下方的上升趋势线,昨日周一又十字星期价位于趋势线上方,临近下方趋势线支撑位置仅仅一步之遥,受昨日晚间美盘豆油与美盘原油红盘上涨表现影响,今天周二盘中马棕榈小幅高开,红盘波动,盘面上成交萎靡,尚不能完全确定下方的支撑有效,在等待美盘短线的方向指引。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势较为纠结,在美盘尚不能给出明确答案前,内盘与马盘油脂商品小幅波动抵抗,欲下还上;欲涨还跌的模糊走势较为明显,多空主力短线上均做了两手准备,均在等美盘的短线指引。我们散户朋友在这种局势下操作难度开始变大,已经止损出局的部分无仓单交易日可暂时场外观望,手中还少量存有短线多单交易者暂时谨慎持有。我们来共同关注一下美盘豆油随后的市场表现-若支撑有效我们多单再跟进,若下破支撑我们空单跟进。让我们待行情明朗后再做具体操作不迟。不在模糊时候盲目进场。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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