Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 17 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.11.2016 周四 全球油脂类商品短线走势存在一定分化迹象

美盘原油市场从本周一(11月14日)小阳十字星K线后,周二的一根中阳上涨,表明纽约原油期价在回落整理到11月14日后出现反弹走强迹象,后市国际原油市场期价一旦突破日K线图表上60天均线的技术阻挡后(47.00位置),存在继续反弹的可能。

美盘豆油12月合约,从10月24日反弹创高点后的短线回落整理走势延续中,截止到今天,期价暂时在日K线图表上的60天均线位置暂时受到一定的技术支持, 整体上来说美盘豆油这波回落整理走势技术整理的比较充分(整理了19个交易日),在第21个交易日是费波纳茨数字关键周期数字,我们耐心等待它回落整理结束信号的发生。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,内盘油脂商品短线走势与美盘略有不同,内盘油脂曾引领马盘棕榈单独的发生过一波上冲,并在11月11日创出新高,但美盘未给予大力支持。后来在中国监管层的政策面影响下,11月14日周一盘中期价大幅跳水,随后这三天来,期价在周一长阴K线的右下侧波动整理,暂时内盘油脂以短线的下挫整理看待为宜。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,马盘棕榈油的前期短线走势跟内盘基本相似,仅仅是内盘11月14日长阴K线暴跌比马盘11月14日的中阴K线下跌幅度要大很多(内盘政策面影响更危害大些),当前马盘棕榈油也是跳空下来之后一个小横盘状态,期价阴阳小幅震荡,市场观望情绪较浓。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线走势上存在一定分化,各个品种当前的具体表现有所差异,在非常时期下,我们建议分别思路对待-美盘豆油延续下挫整理态势,期价回落整理即将接近尾声,存在一定的短线多单逢低接盘机会(预测估计在下周);而内盘与马盘油脂商品短线走势存在一定的模糊状态-“欲跌还涨”,整体来说-内怕 马盘当前期价虽然短暂下跌整理,但整体短线走势上仍要强于美盘豆油很多,在内盘与马盘这种强势态势下,若后期美盘豆油回落整理一旦结束,势必会从新给予内盘与马盘油脂商品上的心理支撑-我们耐心等待该时刻的到来,到时候我们会有一个多单逢低进场的小机会,暂时这几天我们场外观望一下,密切关注美盘豆油后市止跌企稳从新短线走强的机会出现。

[SUMMARY]
• Short-term trends of global edible oils are diverse, prompting us to view the markets individually rather than as a whole.
• There are low price opportunities to enter long position as the downtrend correction of US soybean oil is coming to an end.
• In comparison, the short-term trend of China and Malaysia edible oil markets is less apparent. Despite undergoing a short-term downtrend correction, they are still stronger than US soybean oil.
• The end of the correction of US soybean oil is expected to give China and Malaysia edible oils a psychological boost, which may present a window of opportunity for us to enter long position.

[ACTION]
• Traders may remain on the sidelines for the next few days, but pay close attention to a possible upward reversal of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock