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Global Markets Analysis – 17 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


17.10.2014 商品市场油脂类商品继续维持弱势震荡走势

分析美盘油脂商品持仓情况可以看出,美盘大豆持仓为净空单,空头主力掌握着市场节奏,但近三周以来空单量呈现逐步递减情况。美豆油持仓已经转换为净多单,但多单持而未动,期价仍处于抵抗下挫状态。

大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品,周五早盘涨跌互现,其中内盘豆油下行态势较为明显,期价已经逼近原震荡区间的下沿位置。内盘与马盘棕榈油短线走势略强于豆油,更多的呈现抵抗性下跌。但油脂类商品整体的短线下挫整理仍进行中。

小结:油脂商品继续保持震荡整理走势,期价均有所滑落。短线上我们继续以下挫寻支撑看待。中线上保持下降趋势弱势格局下行观点不变。长线上仍以下挫之后酝酿新的反转趋势思路的大局观。在三种不同程度周期层面,我们要时刻保持清醒头脑,做那个周期就要关注那个周期的走势,不能在频繁交易中迷失了自己的观点。个人观点认为已平仓出局者场外观望,其中部分激进派散户人士可反手继续逢高短空操作,日内平仓不恋战。耐心等待期价下来寻找到具体支撑之后的长线多单进场机会,这才是我们当前总的终极目标。(前一截下行接近尾声 后一截新趋势尚未发生)

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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