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Global Markets Analysis – 17 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.17 周三 马盘毛棕榈11月在关键技术阻挡位置徘徊

北京9月17消息:美国大豆出口理事会(USSEC)称,中国一贸易团在考察一周后,与美国出口商签订了480万吨大豆采购合同,交易价值金额为23亿美元。M

全美油籽加工商协会表示,美国豆油8月份库存降至12.14亿磅,为2004年以来库存最低。同时报告还显示,8月美大豆压榨量小于预期,为1.1亿蒲式耳。从加工商协会报告可看出,美国国内豆油压榨速度放缓,豆油库存接近10年来低点,这对美盘豆油期价存在提振作用,从近2日的长阳低位反弹上涨也体现出美盘豆油12月短线的反弹要求,短线上美豆油反弹行情延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品昨日挑战箱体上沿的技术阻挡无果,期价呈冲高回落走势,豆油和棕榈油1501合约均留上影线,表明上方40天线处有一定压力,等待内盘积蓄做多能力突破该上沿的阻挡。(箱体下沿3天前未能果断下破,现在又从低位起来,则突破上沿的概率大增)

马盘毛棕榈油昨日因公共假期而停盘,今天周三早盘开盘后继续在40天线位置小幅震荡,当前该位置也属于关键技术位,从毛棕榈油基准11日图表可以看出,前期的期价重要压力位都处于40天线处,较为明显的是上次6月25日的下跌和5月15日的滑落。2次均是从40天线位置反弹受阻而开始下跌,所以我们密切关注当前位置马盘的表现。

小结:大陆内盘豆油和棕榈油1501合约在箱体上沿位置多空争夺激烈,马盘毛棕榈油基准11月在关键技术阻挡位徘徊,二者都恰到各自的关键技术位。考虑到美盘的反弹走势才刚刚开始,短线上我们继续保持反弹观点不变。个人看法是前期多单持有,但心态上保持谨慎态度。(特别是马盘)

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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