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Global Markets Analysis – 18 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.18 周一 激进和稳健操作者均观望

今天周一,在上周5个交易日内油脂商品期价连续狂泄,今天早盘 大陆豆油1501合约 和马盘毛棕榈油基准11月二品种呈现十字星走势,成交量萎缩,多空观望气氛较浓。内盘棕榈油1501合约由于一个交易日有2个交易时段,除正常白天外又增加了夜间9点-第二天凌晨2点交易令日K线图形出现变异。

整体来说,油脂商品急促下挫后,本周一期价跌幅略有收窄,由于多个品种下方已经找不到具体技术支撑位,下方的空间让人无法猜想。多空主力出手动向也出现犹豫迹象。在短线没出现下跌企稳信号前,我们继续保持短线上的看空观点。

小结: 在期货市场上我们常说“市场行为包容一切”。当前出现的油脂商品价格肯定是被市场所包容和允许的,有什么外围环境必然就有什么内在价格。在多重利空基本面消息影响下,油脂商品疲软格局未变,中线和短线的下跌和下探 行情仍在进行中,我们继续保持中短线角度上的看空观点不变。唯一值得提醒的是,后市下方的下跌空间还有多大?将逐步提到主力散户思考日程上来。个人看法是我们从本周起建议持有“短线上看空不追空,长线上看多不进多”的操作思路模式,当前油脂商品价格已经达到长期投资价值区域范围内,但在市场没明显出现止跌前,我们多空交易在这个敏感期价范畴内均要保持谨慎。 用普通老百姓的话来说就是-“跌吧,越跌越高兴,跌到1元/吨才好,我们就买进看涨”。当前,我们思维上就保持这种操作观点来对待当前的市场行为。在下跌未企稳前,上涨未发生之前,稳健操作者观望,激进操作者更要忍忍激进的脾气。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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