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Global Markets Analysis – 18 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.08.2016 周四 油脂类商品-中线角度继续保持反弹上行观点;但短线角度出现超买苗头

美盘豆油12月合约,前期在突破了二大浪的下降压力线技术阻挡后,期价震荡拔高,期价惯性的上冲走势凌厉,日K线图表上均线系统“金叉”酝酿中,二浪的均线空头排列态势正在被扭转为多头排列,市场行情正在酝酿第三大浪的主升浪(这是我们在前期二大浪尾声阶段就一直所期待的)。从大的中线角度来说-中线反弹上行走势进行中。唯一让我们内心稍有不安的地–是从8月初以来短线角度的走势,由于短线走势凶猛而凌厉,期价呈现直线式上涨,越是靠近4月21日的35.81前高附近我们内心越是幸福中带有紧张,我们此刻不确定前高是被一举突破还是会受到阻挡?不能非常确定美盘本波反弹的高点到底在何位置?(而原先8月10日时候对下降压力线的技术阻挡位的突破;我们那时对突破确定的信心程度要高很多),我们此刻单从短线角度来说-为保险起见,在美豆油越是靠近前高位置,我们提前建议短线多单可适当逢高减仓。

大陆内盘油脂类商品如豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,追随美盘豆油短线走势期价也震荡走高,但上涨幅度略小于美盘与马盘,这更要引起我们的警惕,在后市短线盘中出现补涨的快速拉升时候,也建议短线的多单适当逢高平仓兑现利润。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,该品种是油脂类商品市场最耀眼的明星品种,近几天期价跳空式于长阳直线式二种走势拉升,期价惯性上涨加速迹象最为明显,较为垂直的上涨斜率已经隐隐出现了短多技术超买苗头,我们对此现象更要保持一份警惕,不能在盲目乐观中迷失了自己。(当均线随期价快速上涨而上叉之后,根据多年经验告诉我们,要时刻防止均线上穿之后的期价回抽确认情况的发生)。

小结:油脂类商品短线反弹上行进入快速拉升的加速阶段尾声,越是在最乐观时候,我们越是要保持更多的谨慎心态-对于当前的个别品种超买迹象苗头不能忽视,一定要防止短线多头主力盘获利盘涌出所带来的账面利润损失,我们在中线角度保持反弹上行观点不变前提下,在短线角度上-我们一定要做好逢高减仓短线多单的准备,先把短线交易的多单利润入袋为安。观点认为具体操作上:中线操作周期的稳健交易者多单持有,短线激进敏感型的多单从今日起本周末与下周初建议多单逢高减仓。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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