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Global Markets Analysis – 18 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.01.2017 马盘棕榈继续攀高 美盘豆油不温不火

美盘豆油3月合约,当前短线走势令人谨慎–从前期连续几天报告中,相信大家已经隐隐感觉到,字里行间 ,我们对美盘豆油走势的失望情绪,行情是一天天走的,虽然我们可以提前预期未来走势痕迹, 但实际的走势的力度与盘感强度却不是我们能实际控制的—因此上,我们会根据盘面最新盘口语言来改变我们的心理预期(可以预期但赢以实际盘面特征而增强或者减弱走势幅度),鉴于美盘豆油的停滞与懈怠盘感,我们已经减弱了b浪反弹的预期高度,继续以谨慎态度对待美盘豆油的实际表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油,棕榈油1705主力合约,短线的反弹上扬走势延续中,这点我们不用怀疑,但由于美盘的懈怠盘感–造成内盘油脂反弹心态些许“暧昧”,因此上–我们以谨慎的反弹心态对待为佳。谨防出现不利情况,而造成手忙脚乱情况发生。

马盘毛棕榈油4月,昨日周二盘中,中阳红盘上涨,特别是尾盘时候,期价出现急涨现象–我们屡次提醒,遇急涨可盘中逢高减仓,截止目前我们仍是此建议–找不到反弹最最高点,我们可以在个人心理满足盈利预期的点位一点点,一手手平仓了结,未及时平仓的散户朋友也不用心慌,马盘棕榈还有挑战3202高点的机会,我们之所以早早就建议未来10天内的操作策略(最后假期前)–就是为预防部分散户朋友短线盘感不强的情况出现。

小结:内盘,马盘油脂类商品短线反弹上行欲望仍存,仅仅是美盘油脂商品上扬态度暧昧–因此上,我们折中盘面操作计划,建议以逢高减仓策略对待(而不再以美盘M头观点对待 那是100%的强势反弹观点),我们继续保持这种观点不变,在未来日子里(假期前)依旧建议逢高减仓多单操作策略,后市发展我们带年后回来以实际盘面表现清晰后,再继续从新制定操作计划。

[SUMMARY]
• There is still hope for an upward reversal in China and Malaysia edible oils, while the uptrend of US soybean oil remains anyone’s guess.
• We shall devise our strategy with the target of closing-out position when prices are high.

[ACTION]
• Traders may gradually reduce long position until we get a clearer picture of the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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