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Global Markets Analysis – 18 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.05.2015 周一 国际原油牛皮震荡;油脂商品短线整理

纽约原油延续前期走势,依托多头排列的5日均线呈牛皮状态震荡盘升,从50美元下方低位开始的短线反弹行情进行中,盘中不温不火的小幅震荡走高行情演绎中。

油脂类商品短线走势出现分歧,其中美盘豆油7月合约,在前期短线反弹走高之后,短线稍高位置开始横盘,期价出现震荡。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,小3浪形态过后,当前运行形态开始出现不清晰,是第4浪的延续?还是新的一浪开始?目前尚不能完全确定,从盘面观察抵抗性下挫整理走势较为明显,继续关注后市走势。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,上周五高开低走终盘阴K线收盘,期价吞没周四带下影线的阳K线,盘中震荡加剧。今天周一早盘低开,期价在60天线处徘徊,盘中欲涨还跌的走势较为明显。

小结:油脂类商品当前短线走势较为模糊,短线上的多空分歧较大。个人继续保持前期大观点-中长线筑大底观点坚决不变前前提下,仅仅需要以谨慎态度对待当前短线上的走势变化,(若是短线强势整理,建议可以置之不理/若是下挫回落整理幅度较大,则应当适当减多单继续等整理结束后再接回。)二种思维态度对应二种操作模式。个人观点认为中长线接盘多单持仓不动,短线多单依据个人心理承受能力区别对待短线操作,要么持仓以静制动,要么逢高适当减持,当前油脂商品短线有技术回落整理要求。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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