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Global Markets Analysis – 18 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.05.2016 周三 美盘豆油仍在两难纠结中;不排除有下破趋势线的可能

美盘豆油7月合约,在5月6号时候探下方趋势线支撑后曾一度反弹上涨,但5月12日的长阴下跌瞬间令短线行情走势模糊起来,期价存在二次考验趋势线的支撑效力。甚至不排除存在一个短暂的下破可能。今天亚洲电子盘面的疲软走势,隐隐让人担忧短线走势。虽然中长期我们看多观点不变,但短线的不利走势更要引起我们的警惕。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609合约,今天周三盘中冲高回落走势,虽然多头主力仍积极抵抗,但期价在60天均线下方,短线仍较为疲软。在美盘不能给出明确答案前,内盘油脂商品仍上下震荡中波动,当前内盘油脂商品的操作价值不大, 只能等美盘出现明确指引后再做操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,今天周三盘中高开低走中阴K线表现,期价下挫走势明显, 对7月合约来说,期价仍存在考验下方趋势线的支撑,而对基准8月来说,5月3日的前低 2530一线仍是考验,马盘短线走弱迹象明显。

小结:美盘豆油仍在上升趋势线位置徘徊不前,一直不能远离关键技术位,若在该处徘徊太久,必定会遭到空头主力的打压,甚至出现下破支撑的可能。因此美豆油的这种模糊尴尬的短线走势一定要引起我们散户朋友的警惕,思维上多提前思考一下,对做商品期货来说不是什么坏事-永远保持“一颗红心;两手准备”是金融投资人必备的品质之一。个人观点认为具体操作上:美盘豆油在关键技术位吊人胃口, 我们建议无仓散户朋友场外观望。下破趋势线,短线激进交易者可短空跟进一下,若不破则少量多单持有者谨慎持有。此刻我个人意见更倾向于期价要出现一个,短暂下破趋势线的可能(往下挖一个空头陷阱,然后再涨起来)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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