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Global Markets Analysis – 18 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.11.2016 周五 美元指数持续上涨;全球大宗商品价格承压

美元指数从11月7日出现反弹上行走势以来,在美国大选尘埃落定之后,美元指数持续上涨,当前期价已经到达2003年以来的新高度(101.20一线),全球大宗商品承压严重,特别是以贵金属如黄金与白银品种期价大幅下挫。其他大宗商品也普遍承压。

对美盘豆油1月来说,短线期价仍震荡下挫整理中,当前期价已经略微下破60天均线的技术支撑(这也在我们的预料之中),美盘豆油后市短线下方的回落空间越来越窄,我们继续等待它止跌企稳机会。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,受近期国内人民币大幅贬值影响(美元对人民币达到了6.80),近期国内商品上各类大宗商品普遍受到各类资金的青睐(钱不值钱了;股市、房地产资金等等就涌向商品资产上来),在前期普遍高涨做多热情被证监会泼了一盆冷水后-市场做多热情熄灭了许多,期价略有回落,但整体的做多欲望还未被完全消灭-我们继续等待新的机会。(散户朋友暂时观望)

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,虽然期价从11月14日跳空下跌之后,短线走势陷入阴阳K线横盘小幅整理状态,期价并未下跌很多,整体仍在较高的价格区间范围内波动,市场的恐慌情绪没有内盘那么大影响。在美盘与大陆内盘短线走势不明朗下,马盘棕榈油呈现出顽强的多头抵抗势头,由于期价小幅横盘震荡,建议散户朋友也场外观望。

小结:美元指数大幅上扬,全球大宗商品普遍承压。美盘豆油期价下挫整理,内盘 与马盘油脂商品抵抗性整理,鉴于当前短线走势上三地品种略有分化,我们耐心场外观望-等待美元指数冲高回落情况的发生,同时继续密切关注美盘豆油的探底回升机会。观点认为操作上:建议场外观望;不盲目操作。

[SUMMARY]
• Global commodities price under pressured as dollar index rose to a 13-1/2-year high.
• China and Malaysia edible oil markets remained supportive while price correction remained in US soybean oil market.
• Trader could wait and pay close attention to a correction for dollar index.

[ACTION]
• Traders could remain on the sidelines while waiting for new entry opportunity.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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