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Global Markets Analysis – 18 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.10.2016 周二 油脂类商品反弹上行短线行情运行中

继上周五晚间美盘豆油12月合约长阳飙涨后,昨日周一晚间美豆油又继续红盘长阳上行,美豆油短线角度的快速拉升迹象明显,我们继续保持短多观点不变。还记得9月中旬时候-我们那时候就说过, 主升第三大浪开始出现雏形,由于内盘国庆放假10天以及其他基本面原因,油脂商品在9月底10月初时候出现一波短暂下挫(时间与节奏被推延),现在该第三大浪仍在运行中(仅仅是第三浪又被细化为更小周期的3浪结构;当然也不排除后期为小5浪结构)。当前美盘豆油短线反弹上行走势延续中,接下来我们关注的焦点转移到-期价快速拔高之后的高度问题上(高点在何处)?一般来讲当期价快速上行时候,下方的均线系统会被快速拉起,但过猛的期价拔高又会容易造成期价远离日K线图表上短期均线系统(容易出现冲高回落走势),因此我们在持有多单时候,内心要提前保持一定的谨慎心态-关注焦点放在“冲高回落”更远一点的层面上来。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1701主力合约,昨日周一盘中,二品种双双涨停板收盘,这在近期的油脂商品走势上是不多见的,表明短线角度内盘油脂商品做多热情高涨,我们继续保持短多思维对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日周一盘中大幅跳空高开,盘中上涨110多令吉特,涨幅接近4%左右。还记得我们早先在基准12月时候就说过,马棕榈第三浪上涨目标2800-2900都不成问题,当前马盘棕榈已经非常接近2800整数关一线了,我们继续短多观点不变-先关注短线;后考虑中长线。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线角度期价快速上涨,市场投资人士做多人气旺盛,我们继续短多思维模式对待。此时此刻-部分市场分析“专家”,又出现在市场聚臂高呼油脂商品多头盛宴如何如何、市场买高不买低的追涨情绪又开始蔓延;甚至有消息称:中国调控房地产行业,房价开始掉头下滑,部分房地产资金搏杀到油脂类商品盛宴中。我们不要被这种情绪所干扰- 早先时候这些分析人士干啥去来?我们目光要远他们一步,关注到上行高度上来,未来几天要谨防冲高回落动作的发生(期价远离均线)。观点认为操作上:多单乐观持有中略带谨慎心态。(当市场全部人士都看多热情高涨时候,反而是我们悄悄逢高多单减仓时候,不跟他们“志同道合”)

[SUMMARY]
• Short-term global edible oil soared, with strong long interests.
• We maintain our short-term long outlook.
• Some experts are betting on a bullish run, fueling a wave of high price buying sentiment in expectation of further rise.
• There is even speculation that investors are pulling liquidity from the real estate market and pouring it into oil futures markets, as a result new housing regulations imposed by the Chinese government. We shall not be influenced by such sentiment.
• We shall look further ahead to a possible downward reversal in the coming days.

[ACTION]
• Traders may cautiously but optimistically hold long positions.
• As many market participants remain bullish, traders may consider closing-out positions to take profit.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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