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Global Markets Analysis – 18 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.09.2015 周五 美联储公布消息按兵不动暂不加息

昨日周四晚间,(北京时间今天周五凌晨2点)令全球投资市场各类金融人士关注的美联储(FED)会议公布消息:指标利率维持不变,承认担忧疲弱的全球经济,美联储按兵不动,9:1投票决定暂不加息,意在不让国际金融市场“雪上加霜”。 全球瞩目的美联储“靴子”终于落地,消息一公布美元指数大跌,(通常来讲不加息相对利好新兴市场、大宗商品、资源、非美货币等等),欧元与英镑上涨,美国股市走高。

大宗商品期货市场观察(偶昨日晚间从2点一直关注到凌晨4点),大部分商品表现平平,仅有贵金属类商品黄金与白银由于金融属性强,在美元走软时候,黄金 白银受到追捧而出现走高。国际原油昨日晚间不为所动,仅仅小幅波动。

我们较为关心的油脂类商品中,美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间依旧我行我素,不受外界因素影响,期价仍维持小幅震荡疲软走势,盘中丝毫看不出走强迹象。行情年年有,今年不好做。这句期货市场老话瞬时又浮现在脑海。长期下跌之后再追空怕被套于低点永不翻身,而抄底进多,盘面又显得毫无生机,死气沉沉,当前美盘豆油的走势就处于当前这尴尬气氛中。建议暂时观望一下吧。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,近期的走势就为代表。欲涨还跌,欲跌还涨的盘中走势就较为明显,如同漂浮在空气中羽毛飘忽不定。打开长期图表,豆油与棕榈油均在历史低价区域,中长线角度下的筑大底过程仍在延续中,短线的无序波动建议只好暂时忽略,锁仓观望为上策。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,前期马币令吉特走软,马毛棕榈油出现一波短线反弹上行走势,在9月15日冲高回落之后,盘面技术信号出现变盘,当前短线又出现走软迹象,后市短线以反弹之后的回落整理看待。

小结:油脂类商品中长线角度依旧下探筑中期大底过程中,短线角度的期价无序波动属于筑大底过程中的正常现象,一波大的单边下跌行情的尾声与一波反弹上行的单边反转行情之间的”拐点“酝酿,首先在时间上就是最熬人的。建议个人心中的信念一定要足够坚定。未来油脂商品的价格一定要比现在高的多。观点认为继续保持中长线筑大底观点下的短线角度疲软看待当前市场。观点认为中长线多单继续谨慎持有,短线多单平仓了结后反手短空进场,与中长线多单形成短暂的对锁单(其中激进操作者可空单仓量适当多一些),静观后市变化,待短线走势结束时,我们会及时建议平掉空单,并在低位再考虑补多单来摊低多单的持仓成本,当前此操作为中性操作模式。(有上策操作模式,但由于过于激进暂不建议单边持仓)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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