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Global Markets Analysis – 18 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


18.09.2017周一内盘期货市场其他大宗商品普遍回落整理

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五晚间中阴K线下跌,期价短线回落整理延续中。今天周一亚洲电子盘红十字星表现,短线角度的抵抗性下挫整理未发生改变,我们继续以回落均线的整理观点对待(均线多头排列)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周一盘面——低开低走的小阴K线表现,盘中多头减仓盘出逃明显(减仓下行),新进逢高短线空单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,上周四冲高回落走势,上周五低开十字星下挫表现,今天周一盘面,截止到中午,为低开低走的小阴K线下跌,马盘棕榈油冲高回落之后的回落整理拉开序幕,上周初的独立强势特征开始减弱,我们继续以回落整理观点看待。

小结:内盘期货市场最近一段时间,大宗商品期价普遍下挫整理,其中以贵金属黄金白银为主要的大宗商品出现下跌,并且延伸到有色金属板块铜锌商品上来。而化工类商品橡胶更是出现6%以上的急跌,另外螺纹钢玻璃煤炭黑色贱金属建材板块也出现不同程度的大跌——-空头气氛的蔓延在内盘期货市场,油脂类商品由于前期反弹上行时候上涨高度不够,因此上回落整理时候的下挫幅度也会相应变小,但我们短线角度的回落整理观点仍保持不变。具体操作上:上周四逢高新进空单乐观持有,更早些时候的反手空单谨慎持有,摊薄空单持仓成本后,我们继续往下看一段回落空间,至于最后的回落空间到底有多大?仍需要我们每日盘中的密切关注。

[SUMMARY]
• Prices major commodities across the board have been falling in China futures markets in recent times.
• The decline of precious metals (gold and silver) was followed by non-ferrous metals (copper and zinc).
• Rubber futures fell as much as 6%, while glass, coal and other types of metals fall by uneven margins.
• Short interest is strong in China’s futures markets.
• Due to the weak uptrend that followed the reversal, the degree of a downward correction may be low.
• Nonetheless, we have a short-term downward correction outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain short positions initiated last Thursday or before.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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