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Global Markets Analysis – 19 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.04.2016 周三 油脂类商品出现新的盘面变化-内盘与美盘油脂率先出现走强迹象

华盛顿4月18日消息:美国农业部发布的出口检验周报显示,截止4月14日的一周,美国对中国大陆装运1469吨大豆,上周对华装运是196吨大豆。美国农业部预测在2015-2016年度中国大陆的大豆进口量将达到创纪录的8300万吨,这一数字要远高于3月预测的8200万吨,也比上年的7835万吨提高了6%还多。中国需求量大增。昨日周一晚间受利好消息影响,美盘豆油7月合约长阳红盘上涨,短线走势出现瞬间的变盘苗头,谨慎对待美盘豆油新的走势,谨防回落整理出现结束信号。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,昨日夜间内盘油脂商品率先出现走强迹象,豆油与棕榈油双双红盘上涨,(跳空高开高走)特别是棕榈油1609主力合约,盘中还创出近期新高,短线调整结束信号比较明显。(前期内盘油脂商品的抵抗性回落整理一直就表现很强,多头主力一直掌控着盘面节奏)。内盘油脂出现短线走强迹象。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,15日周一盘中以带下影线的小阴十字星收盘,期价在40日均线位置暂受支撑。昨日周二盘中又跳空高开小阳收盘,在昨日晚间美盘豆油走强以及大陆内盘油脂商品走强带动下,今日盘中马盘棕榈有望出现走高,不排除前期的短线后落整理出现结束的信号,这点要提前引起我们的警惕。

小结:美盘豆油短线走强,今天,将提振其他油脂商品走高,前期的短线整理行情出现结束信号,对于这点我们要保持高度警惕,密切关注今日盘中-内盘与马盘油脂商品的表现。观点认为具体操作上:内盘与马盘油脂商品的短线剩余空单全部离场(其中部分空单已经建议过逢低减仓操作)。场外一直观望的操作者中,部分较为激进的操作者可反手多单逢低进场试盘-油脂类商品短线出现调整结束信号,后市存在反身继续走高的可能。同时继续关注美盘豆油的后市短线上涨的延续性。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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