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Global Markets Analysis – 19 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.04.2017 周三 美盘豆油横盘区间波动延续 内盘 马盘油脂则下探疲软寻支撑

美盘豆油7月合约,本周一中阳上涨之后,昨日晚间周二盘面又中阴下挫,未能错列2阳突破横盘区间上沿。今天周三亚洲电子盘期价小阴表现,期价仍处于横盘区间内,美豆油短线的波动震荡延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,在美豆油未能提供突破上沿方向指引后,今天豆油上空头主力再度增仓打压期价,而棕榈油上则为减仓下行,部分多头主力信心丧失而资金出逃。考虑到美豆油仍在横盘的区间范围内,我们暂且不建议盲目操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,由于对棕榈油产量增加担忧,昨日周二盘面上,空头主力进场打压期价,终盘中阴下挫。今日周三盘面受内盘期价下挫影响,期价跳空低开十字星表现。马棕榈油探底过程延续中。

小结:美盘豆油未能给出突破横盘区间上沿的方向指引,令内盘马盘多头主力失去耐心,恐慌之下期价再度下挫。考虑到中线回落调整已经处于超卖状态的尾声阶段,而基本面情况又缺少利好情况支持,当前短线走势表现的较为疲软也就不难理解了,由于美豆油依然在横盘状态(美豆油反弹无力而下挫空间也不会很大)——我们对内盘马盘 继续保持下探寻底观点不变,仍不建议盲目操作,多单继续以静制动持仓不动,关注美豆油的横盘区间下沿的支撑力度。

[SUMMARY]
• As US soybean continues to move sideways, long interest on China and Malaysia edible oils lose momentum.
• Overselling condition and bearish fundamentals are contributing to the short-term decline.
• With US soybean expected to continue its sideways movement, our outlook remains: seeking a low point for China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position while paying attention to the strength of the support of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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