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Global Markets Analysis – 19 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.19 周二 十字星整理 交投清淡

美盘豆油周一和周二2天小阳K线震荡,在连续多日下跌之后在低位小幅整理,空头打压力度有所降低,但盘面仍未出现明显的止跌信号,期价的的短线下行速度逐渐归于平静,后市关注前期下跌动能的释放程度。

在美盘平淡的同时,大陆内盘和马盘油脂商品短线走势也趋于平静,期价更多的表现为十字星小整理状态,成交萎缩,多空主力操作保持谨慎,毕竟在上周连续急跌之后,杀跌动能得到一定释放。以马盘基准11月毛棕榈油为例,技术上观察,从6月25日开始下跌的本波段行情显现出正在走第5浪的尾声阶段(此句话是指从更大角度来说从2014年3月11日开始 一直到现在, 在日图表上存在一个较为清晰的下跌5浪结构, 其中6月25到今天为其中的第5浪结构的雏形) ,从其它多项技术分析工具也可以看出,当前的市场短线行情出现了不同程度的超卖迹象,一旦下方下跌空间被封杀,那后市的反弹行情会存在一触即发的可能性。

小结:中短线我们仍保持前期关键技术位下破后的看空观点不变,耐心的等待市场下蹲后寻找到下方的支撑位。在未出现明显下跌企稳技术信号前,个人看法是操作上我们继续保持看空不追空观点不变,散户操作者一律场外观望。短线上来说本波下蹲结束后,后市上存在一波大级别的反弹行情,当前我们唯一需要观察的就是本波下跌动能的具体释放情况

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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