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Global Markets Analysis – 19 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.12.2014周五 周末时分继续场外观望

已经进入2014年的岁末月份,从长期月K线图表上观察,美原油离长期上升趋势线技术支撑位置(50.00)仅仅一步之遥,还需要些时日对该位置进行支撑验证。 日图表上近几日期价下滑速度略微放慢,下行空间变窄,密切关注市场50.00一线的表现。

美豆油本波下跌远早于原油,月K线图表上早已经提前到达原上升趋势线技术位(30.00正负1),该位置的抵抗性动作较为明显,因此造成短线日图表上期价呈现箱体位置的右侧横盘整理状态,期价向下的动能有所减弱,但仍不排除由于国际原油猛的下探50.00一线动作时而带来的不利影响。

大陆内盘周五早盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1505合约,继续保持惯性下挫走势,建议操作上以日内逢高短空见好就平操作手法为主。耐心等待美原油与美豆油的下探结束。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,期价在下方2100整数关口存在技术支撑(2014年10月16日前低),盘中有明显多头抵抗性护盘迹象,考虑到美原油与美豆油尚未完全考验完本身的理论上技术支撑位,在此之前的盲目进场操作不可取。

小结:散户操作者当前最需要的是耐心,在临近长线角度的拐点结束时期不可盲目进场。个人觉得短线角度仍以疲软看待,待美原油与美豆油真正找到下方支撑位后, 长线接盘多单才可考虑进场。激进短线操作者若手痒可逢高短空日内平仓练练手感,但不建议持仓过夜。共同场外等待本年末所结束的中线下降趋势下的行情结束。(心中一定要清楚:没有永远只跌不涨的行情;同样也没有只涨不跌的行情)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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