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Global Markets Analysis – 19 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.01.2015 周一 油脂商品观望

国际原油一周来低位横盘震荡,虽盘中见过低点,但好在迅速收回。其中美原油截止到目前为止仍维持在48.70左右,盘面些许可见逢低多头买盘护盘身影。

美盘豆油3月,短线上仍在横盘区间的箱体运行,上周五晚间红盘中阳上涨,收盘于33.37。长线角度仍在长期上升趋势线支撑位置上方右侧横盘运行,豆油整体库存下降中, 后市期价随着时间的推移向上运行的要求会越来越强烈。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,震荡性下挫筑底迹象明显,在美盘没给出明确方向指引前,当前的震荡行情恐仍将维持,考虑到后期中国大陆传统节日春节和元宵节的临近,油脂类商品需求会有一定提高,因此后市期价一定幅度的上涨仍可期待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,上周高位震荡,盘中期价波动较大,在前期连续上行之后,上周四冲高回落留长上影线,表明上方存在一定压力,周五时候高开低走终盘以长阴下跌收盘, 前期获利盘逢高减仓迹象明显,盘中短空势头得到一定体现,今天周一恐长阴K线右下角小阳震荡整理。

小结:油脂类商品短线下挫震荡,长线筑底观点保持不变,密切关注美盘豆油在箱体上沿阻挡位置的表现,上破之后行情看多,箱体内震荡则观望。个人观点认为短线空单与中长线多单形成对锁操作者,短空单子可适当逢低平仓。建议无仓者场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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