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Global Markets Analysis – 19 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.01.2016 周二 内盘与马盘油脂商品走势出现分化;短线多单继续谨慎持有;等待美盘豆油的走势指引

中国国家统计局今天上午公布了2015经济数据,2015年全年国内生产总值(GDP)676708亿元,比上年增长6.9%,创25年来新低。统计局局长王保安解释说 -从国际环境看,当前世界经济持续复苏乏力,经济形势错综复杂,国际贸易下降,金融风险增加,这些都对中国经济产生严重影响,因此国内GDP6.9%的增速还属于一个不低的数字。从国家统计局公布的具体数字分析,我个人认为-这基本符合中国现阶段经济的整体表现,中国6.9%的GDP增速,对全球世界经济贡献值相当于在25%左右。2016年在中国稳中求进的总基调下,扩大内需,刺激国内基础设施建设,产业结构调整以及进一步优化,产业转型升级,探索新兴动力等等政策仍会积极进行,2016年度的总GDP不排除还有下滑的可能(最低点在6.4-6.5%左右),但最恶劣的情况恐将在2016年出现大的拐点。这有待我们后期的密切关注。周二, 中国股票市场在今天国民生产总值数据公布后,出现了短线上的探底回升走势。

我们较为关心的油脂类商品中,美盘豆油3月合约,在今天周二的亚洲电子盘的表现截止到目前为止,表现为红盘小阳走势,在美盘大豆走强欲望带动下,美豆油短线上存在技术走高可能,我们关注美盘豆油3月合约今日晚间的具体表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,在昨日周一盘中中阳红盘上涨后,今天周二盘中继续红盘表现,后市短线走势上,若期价上穿上方的短期均线的阻挡后(20天均线),则会出现加速迹象,我们继续对内盘油脂商品在短线角度层面上保持短多观点不变,短线多单继续谨慎持有。

马盘毛棕榈油当前基准合约转为4月,原棕榈油基准3月近2日盘面减仓现象明显。 从马棕榈基准4月日K线图表观察,均线系统为多头排列,下方有40余60天均线的支撑,上方有10和20天均线的阻挡,期价整体与均线纠缠在一起,在昨日周一盘中冲高回落走势之后,今天周二盘中期价略有走低,我们对棕榈油4月保持一个总体原则,期价站于60天均线上方,我们短线新进多单持仓不动。可设止损位于60天均线下方x点。

小结:美盘豆油3月昨日因假期停盘后,今天仅仅是亚洲电子盘表现,等待美盘晚间的真正走势指引。今天周二盘中,大陆内盘油脂商品走势强于马盘棕榈,一强一弱走势出现分化,马来西亚令吉特汇率今天的意外走强是马棕榈走弱的罪魁祸首。 建议密切关注美盘豆油今日晚间的具体走势。观点认为操作上:原中长线角度的趋势性反转观点的交易者多单继续持有。短线新进场的激进型交易者多单谨慎持有。等待美盘豆油走势的具体指引。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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