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Global Markets Analysis – 19 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.05.2017 周五 美盘大豆豆油昨日晚间下跌 已经逢高兑现了结的散户朋友暂且场外观望

昨日周四晚间,美盘黄豆连长阴下跌,美豆油7月合约中阴走低。有消息称巴西总统特梅尔 “贪污受贿腐败”事件受到指控,受此影响巴西货币雷亚尔兑美元下挫7%。 市场开始担忧巴西豆农恐将加快销售步伐,因大豆是美元计价,而卖出大豆后巴西豆农收到的是本国货币,雷亚尔汇率的下跌则意味着销售同等数量大豆会得到更多数量的钱。受巴西大豆销售冲击全球豆类市场担忧情绪影响,美盘大豆昨日长阴暴跌,而美豆油7月也未能豁免。其实就算没有巴西总统腐败案,美盘豆油7月合约在60天均线处连续几天的犹豫不决,早引起了我们技术上的担忧,仅仅是市场部分分析人士从基本面上给美豆 美豆油找到一个下挫上的借口罢了,我们散户朋友短线关注美豆油的下挫幅度大小。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆油 棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日周四盘面高开低走,率先阴K线表现。今天周五盘面期价又低开高走—-只要昨日的阴K线高点不被收回,则短线出现走坏迹象苗头。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,本周三周四2天期价维持在较高部位。减仓下行市场盘口语言表明,有部分多头逢高减仓出局。今天周五盘面期价平开走低阴K线表现,一方面原因是受外围市场走弱拖累,另一方面持仓量的大幅锐减存在是“多杀多”造成。

小结:美盘豆油中阴下跌,期价再度下挫到60天均线下方(由于美豆油迟迟未能拔高脱离该关键技术位,上冲不能则转为下挫该走势早在前几天我们就开始担忧 )。前几日就操作建议“逢高了结兑现出局”(越急涨越平) 就是预防此情况的发生。 从美豆油短线观察,美豆油7月合约出现走软迹象。不排除正如我们研判报告中所提到的冲高之后有回落整理走势可能, 而短线回落之后我们会在稍低位置再多单跟进。而当前最主要的是关注下挫的力度与幅度,已经平仓了结出局的散户朋友暂时场外观望。 部分平仓完毕的少数激进型交易者可少量反手空单试盘操作,但记住一点,我们不是主要来做短空,我们最根本的本质目的是在稍低位置再去接盘多单, 短线敏感型交易者可短空操作,其余散户朋友不建议该操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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