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Global Markets Analysis – 19 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.10.2016 油脂商品快速冲高之后, 短线出现调整迹象

美盘豆油12月合约,经过10月14日与10月17日连续2天急速长阳飙涨之后,昨日周二晚间小阴K线右侧整理,今天亚洲电子盘又继续横盘整理-快速拔高,远离均线之后的小幅整理走势演绎中,该走势已经在我们意料之中,在上攻动能未出现明显的衰竭信号前,我们继续保持短多观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,同样追随美盘豆油走势,在今天周三盘中同样出现调整走势-其中豆油是在本周一涨停板的右上角做小幅整理动作,棕榈油1701是期价小幅回落而回补了昨日的跳空缺口,内盘油脂商品短线走势出现整理,下方的5日均线暂时受到支撑,以5日均线作为多单止损位(下破减持多单),否则多单继续谨慎持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,该品种的动作就略显夸张-更多的体现了我们昨日报告中的担忧情绪,在昨日周二盘中高开低走的中阴K线-在期价上涨触及到高点2802令吉特整数关位置左右后,更明显的率先出现了“冲高回落”迹象,表明有部分短线多头逢高兑现手中筹码利润,今天周三盘面观察,马棕榈油的短线反弹走势的上涨动能仍未完全衰竭,我们继续短线多头观点对待。

小结:美盘豆油快速冲高之后出现小幅整理,内盘与马盘油脂商品追随性走势-但各个品种的具体整理幅度与恐慌情绪表现却不仅相同,在油脂商品整体上攻动能尚未完全衰竭前,我们继续短多思维对待,不与理会盘中的短暂整理。观点认为操作上:内盘与马盘各个油脂商品上的多单以5日均线为多单止损点继续持有,不破不止,同时密切关注美盘豆油短暂整理之后的后续上行走势(后市短线上仍要提前考虑部分多单逢高兑现利润;先入袋为安的短线思路)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil underwent a minor correction after soaring, as China and Malaysia edible oil follow.
• However, correction and uncertainty are irregular for different edible oil products.
• Until upward momentum completely recedes, we shall maintain our short-term long outlook, unaffected by this short-term correction.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long positions with the 5-day moving average as the cut-loss point on China and Malaysia oil products.
• In the meantime, traders may observe closely the US soybean oil’s upward trend after the short-term correction.
• Traders may consider taking profit on some long positions in a short-term safety measure.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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