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Global Markets Analysis – 19 October 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.10.2017周四美盘豆油后市短线走势预测

在昨日周三报告中,我们观察了美豆油从一个上升通道里跌落出来,是在9月26日下破的上升趋势线,当前短线走势属于“反抽”原来的上升趋势线——-这个反弹上行的修复反抽过程会存在2种可能,一是,再次强力上攻突破趋势线的技术阻挡,从而回到原来的上升通道中(2根红线之间内),还有另外一种可能就是,期价仅仅反弹到趋势线压力下方,而没有力量上破,从而被技术阻挡再次掉落下来,从我个人盘面感觉,因为前期我们定义为本波反弹为“弱势反弹上行”,因此上在趋势线压力位与60天均线阻挡位,更大概率会反抽动作结束后,再次受阻下挫。这个观点我们在昨天报告基础上进行一个补充说明。盘面上,昨日周三晚间美豆油12月合约期价小幅下跌,今天周四亚洲电子盘又继续红盘上涨表现,美豆油短线反弹尚未到34.10技术压力一线,并且盘面上还未出现明显的变盘信号,仅仅提醒我们在思维上需要警惕一些。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,本波短线反弹走势未紧紧追随美盘豆油走势,期价仅弱势波动震荡。特别是内盘豆油1801品种表现更弱一些。这跟当前中国大陆方面豆油160万吨的庞大库存量心理压力分不开的,也是造成期价无力反弹的主要原因(多头不敢发力)。但是又考虑到第四季度,随着天气变冷以及元旦春节假期,消费高峰也即将到来,所以我们较长线角度还是看好油脂商品的。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月(或原12月),在昨日因公共假期停盘一天后,今天周四开盘交易,在外围周边市场走弱影响下,今天盘面期价走低以阴K线下跌表现,当前短线走势也出现徘徊模糊迹象。

小结:我们更早时候就曾提到过,在美国大豆收获季节,庞大的新豆上市所带来的中线期价下挫心理压力不容小视,当前美国大豆主产区收割工作已经过半(中线周期上有一股打压期价下挫心理)。从更长周期角度来说,一年当中农作物收获季节往往是期价最低时候,因此上长线角度我们是以逢低看多观点对待的。而从短线角度我们是纯粹的技术看法,既“超跌之后的反抽技术修复”观点对待的。因此上本波短线操作的实际效果会受到中线层面,长线层面的心理反向影响——-鉴于三个操作周期上的投资人士心理上“反驳”不稳定情绪,我们把本波短线操作不要看的太重,这样一来,内盘马盘油脂商品不紧紧追随美盘豆油,我们心理上就好理解了(三个操作周期上互为矛盾)。具体操作上:在美盘豆油未出现明显的技术受阻变盘信号前,我们继续以弱势的反弹上行观点对待,继续寻找逢高多单平仓出局的机会把握(实在找不到最佳平仓高点,也只能逐步放弃本波短线反弹操作),让我们给美盘豆油更多一两天的时间观察。若后市一旦美豆油关键技术位受阻,我们会在第一时间建议平多翻空操作。

[SUMMARY]
• Downward pressure exerted on the medium-term trend of US soybean price is not to be overlooked.
• In the long-term, with agricultural commodities prices conventionally suppressed during harvest, we hold a long position outlook.
• In the short-term, our technical analysis suggests a possible rebound correction following a steep decline.

[ACTION]
• Until US soybean oil shows change in technical signals, we continue to hold a rebound outlook, in hopes of closing-out long positions at high prices.
• We shall turn to short positions, as soon as reversal signals emerge in US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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