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Global Markets Analysis – 19 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.19 周五 美盘豆油下跌 内盘周末平仓了结 马盘减半仓

豆油方面:美盘豆油12月,昨日周四晚间出现下跌,以中阴K线收盘。受美盘豆油下跌影响,周五早盘内盘豆油1501合约,跳空低开低走,期价从箱体上沿高位再次跌落到箱体内,令豆油走势出现我们昨天提到的担忧情况,即下沿不破而上沿也不能突破,存在回复到箱体内运行的可能。

棕榈油方面:马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨天在突破40天线阻挡后,继续上行见高点2166令吉,后在多头获利回吐盘涌出情况下消减当天涨幅,终盘以带上影线的十字星收盘,今天早盘低开后继续呈十字星震荡,期价整体处于40天线与60天线之间运行(仍属于我们提示过的谨慎反弹区域)。中国国内棕榈油情况是 :棕榈油现价基本平稳,8月份由于国内融资进口受到限制,进口棕榈油装运量减少,导致近期国内棕榈油到港量减少,库存量持续下降,部分厂商手里甚至无库存,支撑现货价格 ,现货方面新意不大。期货市场内盘棕榈油1501合约早盘受外围油脂商品的下跌影响,呈现低开低走态势,短线情况也出现不妙,期价再次回到原右侧横盘区间内,短线情况出现不明朗。

小结:美盘豆油昨日出现下跌,马盘棕榈油今日低开后震荡,仍处于较为敏感的位置运行(可上可下)。大陆内盘今天在箱体上沿位置掉落,存在上破箱体失败的迹象,存在演变成右侧横盘的可能。整体油脂商品今天很是敏感。个人观点是马盘反弹多单可继续谨慎持有,特殊敏感操作者可减半仓获利了结。大陆内盘油脂商品多单全部平仓出局。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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