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Global Markets Analysis – 19 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.09.2016 周一 内盘与马盘公共假期期间;美盘油脂商品期价下行意愿不强烈

在上周内盘与马盘期货市场因假期停盘期间,美盘期货市场仍在交易,从美盘大豆与豆油上周的走势观察,美盘油脂商品的下行意愿不强,期价呈抵抗性回落整理明显,虽然说从基本面上美国大豆的单产以及最终的种植面积预期和总产量仍是困扰投资人的地方,随着不断上调的各种利空数据(单产已经从48上调到了50.06蒲式耳),相信最终的利空出尽便是利多时刻(因利空数据逐渐被接受与消化),我们中长线角度继续保持震荡筑大底酝酿“大反转”观点不变,而短线以收割前的短线下挫回落波动震荡观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,今天9月19日周一开盘交易,因4天假期期间美盘豆油未出现明显的期价下挫迹象,受此影响,今天内盘油脂商品高开,期价在假期前最后一个交易日9月14日上周三的长阴K线中段位置运行,我们继续保持短线的回落整理下挫观点不变。

马来西亚方面在上周也仅有3个交易日,从马盘这3个交易日走势观察,特别是最后的9月15日周四的中阳K线观察,马盘毛棕榈油基准11月期价的下挫也不强烈,呈现出抵抗性动作,今天周一开盘后,马盘棕榈恐将在这根中阳K线右侧继续波动运行,我们暂且或场外观望或短空整理对待。

小结:美国大豆收割在即,有消息称过多的降雨将对收获有一定的不利影响。南美巴西方面新一季的大豆种植开始,由于巴西玉米价格飙涨,新大豆的播种面积恐将减少(收获一吨玉米;大豆将需要用三倍的土地面积),在基本面情况多空因素参杂不清,在美国最终的农业部报告出炉前,我们继续保持对油脂类商品短线的回落波动震荡观点不变,其中由于美盘豆油多运行交易了几个交易日,因此在回落整理上就表现的较为充分一些,我们继续关注美盘豆油小3浪的调整结束信号的出现, 时刻准备短线空单离场而多单低位跟进的机会。观点认为具体交易上:中长线多单继续谨慎持有,短线空单与中线多单形成锁仓,激进交易者暂时场外观望,耐心等待油脂商品盘面走势上的新的变化。

[SUMMARY]
• Excessive rainfall may adversely affect the harvest of U.S soybeans.
• Growing of soybeans in Brazil may be reduced to allow for cultivation of corn, which is experiencing a surge in prices.
• Closing-out of short-term short trades is anticipated. There may be opportunities to enter long trades at low prices.

[OPINION]
• Traders may maintain medium and long-term long positions.
• Traders may enter a spread trade comprised of a short-term short position and a medium-term long position.
• Aggressive traders may sit on the sidelines, as they wait for a new trend to develop.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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