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Global Markets Analysis – 19 September 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


19.09.2017周二油脂类商品短线回落整理行情延续中

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间期价继续下挫,盘面上连续的中阴K线下跌,表明回落下方均线系统的短线整理行情依旧延续中,当前期价已经逐步靠近下方60天均线位置,在未出现明显的止跌企稳的技术信号前,我们继续保持短空观点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,内盘豆油前期期价呈现横盘波动状态,期价整体变化不大,因此造成日K线图表上的均线系统几乎呈“粘合状态”(涨的不多,跌也没劲)。内盘棕榈油情况就不同了,上周末时候随马盘棕榈油曾发力上冲过,日K线图表上的均线系统呈“发散的多头排列状态”,昨日周一盘面低开低走小阴K线,今天周二低开高走的小阳表现,表明内盘棕榈油兼顾内盘豆油与马盘棕榈油走势—-呈抵抗性整理。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月(或11月),上周马来西亚棕榈油局的报告呈利多性质,这大大提振了马盘棕榈油在上周后半段的市场表现,期价在反弹上扬过程中完全吸收消化了利好消息带来的心理影响(期价多了三天的发力上冲),从上周四开始,期价才出现了冲高回落走势,而随后的这几天,连续的期价中阴K线下跌,表明短线回落整理行情仍延续中,我们继续短空观点对待。

小结:美盘豆油马盘棕榈油短线回落整理走势延续中,反弹上行之后的盘中期价下挫幅度明显。大陆内盘油脂商品“抵抗性”整理,因此上期价波动不明显,但我们的短空思维保持不变。操作上:前期空单继续持有,继续关注后市下方回落空间的大小。

[SUMMARY]
• Downtrend of US soybean oils and Malaysian palm oil continues, as a downward correction is in progress.
• China edible oils went into the sideways trend.
• Our short-term short outlook remain: downward correction is expected to continue.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are holding short positions may retain it in view of an ongoing downward correction of the markets.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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