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Global Markets Analysis – 2 June 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.06.2015 周二 关注美盘豆油在箱体上沿位置的表现

美盘豆油7月合约,昨日周一晚间继续长阳飙涨,连续的2根长阳,来势之猛令空头主力措手不及,盘面表现非常强势。前高5月15日的高点轻易就被上破,走势符合我们的短线预期,但强度还是略超出我们的想象,个人对短多依旧观点不变。从中长线角度来说,当前期价位于34.40左右,该价位正是前期一直提到的横盘整理区间的上沿位置,若该位置再被向上突破,则后市不仅是短线角度的走强,而是中长线角度的“反转”概念。之所以这么说,请打开美豆油7月合约的周K线图表,前期是空头排列的下降趋势,当前短线角度的反弹已经来到上方60天均线34.60附近,若60天线被向上突破,则均线系统会产生向上的“金叉”,原有的中线下降趋势将被扭转,也符合长期以来我们一直所提到的横盘震荡筑大底过程的尾声阶段,我们更多的期待是中长线角度的大反转,而不是仅仅短线角度的短多看待那么简单。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,该品种是本波短线反弹行情的领头羊,期价震荡盘升走势明显,虽然走势没有美盘豆油的快速和猛烈,但属于小碎步震荡爬升,其中棕榈油已经破前高5206,豆油略弱一些。但短多观点我们依旧保持不变。

马盘棕榈油基准8月合约,同美盘豆油走势意思相同,盘中补涨情绪猛烈,短短2个交易日期价均跳空高开,其中昨日周一是增仓上行,为多头买进进场,今天周二上午是减仓上行,为空头买进止损离场。从日K线图表观察,当前短线走势呈现出3个跳空缺口,5月26日 为普通跳空,昨天周一为突破跳空,今天周二有可能是中继跳空(这种走势在通常原理上来讲,后市上方还有一半的上涨空间)

也就是说后市上方还有一个衰竭跳空,才会出现新一轮的回落整理。我们当前仍可以乐观情绪看待后市短线走势。

小结:美盘豆油强烈补涨,2天时间已经长阳形成突破短线的前高,建议后市密切关注原长期震荡区间的上沿位置该品种的表现。大陆内盘震荡爬升格局未变,马盘棕榈油跳跃式上冲。整体来说油脂类商品虽走势不仅相同,但短线的反弹上行格局未变,基本符合个人的短线预期,继续保持短多观点不变。个人观点认为短线多单乐观持有。中长线多单在乐观情绪下更多的要关注后市中长线角度是否会发生大反转的情况发生。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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