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Global Markets Analysis – 02 November 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.11.2015 周一 静待本周发生盘面新的变化

美国最新农业部报告:截止11月1日美国大豆收获预期完成到93%左右,比上周的87%速度加快。今日周一晚间美国农业部将发布周度作物进展报告。当前美盘黄豆连期价下挫整理延续中,美盘豆油12月合约继续横盘整理,下行动能在逐步衰竭,下方的回落空间被压缩,相信在本周最后几天美国大豆将全部完成收割工作。总产量成埃落定的时间已经非常临近。

大陆内盘油脂商品大豆与豆粕短线的震荡回落下跌行情进行中,盘面仍未见到明显止跌企稳信号。豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约跌幅略小于大豆与豆粕,但技术性下探走势还是非常明显,在收获尾声阶段该走势可能还要延续几日。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,短线走势强于美盘与内盘,马棕榈盘中表现存在“迫不及待”的丝丝含义,期价始终保持在前高附近,后市存在向上突破的可能,万事俱备只欠美盘与内盘的支持。

国际原油价格小幅走高,其中纽约原油10月28日长阳反弹上涨之后,当前期价仍有延续短线反弹向上的动能。

美盘黄金当前短线下跌,期价跌到下方60天均线处恐有一定支撑。美元指数前期短线冲高反弹上行,上周四当天存在冲高回落嫌疑,后市美元有回落整理技术要求。

小结:美国大豆收割接近最后尾声,全球油脂商品下探性质整理等待,等待最后具体报告的出炉。最大的利空出尽便是利多。我们当前短线继续以短线短空看待,(马棕榈较强)耐心等待低位平空翻多机会。观点认为:原先多空锁单操作者继续持有,而场外观望散户朋友也不必心急,静待消息面进一步的明朗以及盘面上发生新的变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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