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Global Markets Analysis – 2 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

10.2 周四 马盘棕榈油出现冲高回落



马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,今天出现增仓下行迹象,表明存在有空头进场主动打压。有消息人士认为是受美原油期价的重挫影响到马盘棕榈油 ,不管何种原因,我们已经提前提示过,当期价运行到关键技术位(60天线是最后一个技术阻挡位),我们心理上一定要保持谨慎,该位置属于一个可上又可下的关键位,若下则属于延续中线角度的下降趋势,若上则存在行情反转的雏形,该位置必定存在多空主力‘兵家必争之地’,我们一定要密切关注期价在60天线处的表现。

小结:美盘豆油变化不大 ,美盘原油出现重挫,大陆内盘假期停盘,马盘毛棕榈油又出现演绎自己盘面独立行情(马盘资金面主力主导),我们已经提示过在该位置一定要谨慎,60天线就是短线多空主力的分界线,站之上反弹延续多单可继续持有,站之下则多单适当减仓,今天马盘出现长阴冲高回落K线,表明有空头主力增仓主动打压,不排除部分多头逢高减仓兑现前期利润入袋为安,因9月初以来马盘独立反弹至今,多单获利盘已经非常丰厚,出现获利盘平仓了结迹象也是可以理解,密切关注我们报告的散户朋友一定会提前提高警惕,相信在今天的短暂下挫中,部分多单已经平仓了结。明天密切关注今天长阴K线是一天行为,还是下挫的开始?若长阴被收复则反弹延续,若继续下挫,则前期多单剩余部分全部平仓了结出局。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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