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Global Markets Analysis – 2 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.2 周二 美盘马盘开盘 关注其动向

周二早盘美盘和亚洲电子盘开盘,美豆油12月合约,期价见新低31.96后小幅走高,在上周五右侧以小中阳报收,该品种技术上早已存在技术反弹要求,特别是短线技术层面,可惜的是由于当前美盘基本面利空情绪严重,令反弹动作迟迟不能展开,短线来说,只有上周五的阴K线被向上吞没,反弹行情才能初见成效,未见到之前只能观望。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,前期受均线系统压制沿原中线角度的下降趋势方向期价逐步走低,成为近期油脂商品中的领跌品种,盘中丝毫看不到止跌迹象,期价已经回归到5年前2009年的水平,中短线的下探寻底过程进行中。从长期月线图表观察,从2011年1月份开始的的下跌呈现5浪结构,当前正运行第5浪(尾声浪),并且这波第5浪又是由日图表上更小周期层面的下跌5浪组成(2014年3月10日至今),因此构成了5浪5结构,这也从另一个层面说明本波下行行情之所以猛烈的原因所在,我们前期报告提到过,该品种中短线角度下方的支撑已经从技术上找不到,短线来说我们保持下探寻底观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品近期是值得嘉奖一番的,在美盘和马盘持续下行过程这么长时间后,仅仅内盘油脂商品短线存在多头抵抗迹象,特别是内盘豆油1501合约,在上周8月25日探底回升后,期价始终保持在平台横盘整理区间,拒绝再次下跌的决心比较明显,今天早盘平开高走以中阳报收,但由于内外盘短线走势上出现分化,这令该品种独立的走势被打折扣。

小结:油脂类商品继续保持中线下降趋势下的短线下探寻底过程中,短线下方支撑无果前, 稳健操作者继续观望,由于接近下探尾声阶段我们不再建议追空操作。而多单操作在无有效的技术反弹信号前也存在激进性质,所以当前是个两难的市场行情阶段,(仅有逢高短空,逢低短多的日内短线高手可操作),散户操作者还是场外观望一下较好

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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