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Global Markets Analysis – 20 April 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周日 4.14—4.18当周油脂商品走势回顾

本周大陆内盘证券出现下挫行情,令投机市场做多人气受到一定影响。 内盘期货市场同样受到影响,其中化工类商品 橡胶 PTA等出现重挫,特别是橡胶9月合约终盘以跌停报收。 建材类三小品种 螺纹钢 玻璃 焦炭周五时分同样出现暴跌,均以长阴收盘。这令本已非常脆弱的期货市场整体做多人气受到严重打击。

我们更所关心的油脂类商品,原本周初时分出现久违的上行态势,但在周末当天内盘豆油 棕榈油1409合约 ,在整体氛围利空影响下,均出现跳空低开低走,在多头抵抗下勉强以十字星收盘。在其他大宗商品整体走弱环境下,内盘油脂商品重燃的做多热情受到冲击。

马盘 毛棕榈油基准7月合约 ,本周初时候多头突然发力,出现震荡上行走势,但仅仅维持了前3天,到周四时候上冲到60天线后,未能完全站稳其上,受上方40天线阻挡,期价再次中阴跌回60天线下方,周五再告下跌,围绕60天线徘徊,尾盘勉强小阴收盘,期价仍处于60天线下方。短线情形岌岌可危,密切关注下周初该品种在60天线处的表现。

美盘豆油整体走势较为流畅,本周整体处于震荡上行态势,期价已经来到前高附近,C浪运行高度要远大于大陆内盘和马盘油脂商品的上行高度,外强内弱迹象较为明显。对于美盘豆油来说,下周走势较为关键,若该品种冲过3月7日前高,将给予内盘和马盘油脂商品上行动力或将出现补涨。若美豆油前高上冲未果,则严防出现技术双重顶走势,下周关注重点仍在美盘豆油上。

综述:大内盘陆其他大宗商品出现大跌,严重影响到油脂商品的上行做多情绪,为后市走势留下悬念。 马盘棕榈油上行走势依旧疲软,期价围绕60天线举棋不定,操作难度变大。下周密切关注美盘豆油表现,若美豆油出现上行受阻技术信号,恐对原本就较为疲软走势的内盘和马盘油脂产生不利影响。密切关注下周美盘豆油具体走势情况。个人看法是上前期接盘多单继续谨慎持有,个人依据自己承受能力提前设置好止损价格,万一情况不对,接盘多单止损出局。本波C浪运行不够流畅,操作难度较大,从盘面观察不是一波好行情。这点需要我们在心理上做个提前准备。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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