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Global Markets Analysis – 20 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.04.2016 周三 短线回落调整确认结束;油脂商品恢复反身上行走势

美盘黄豆连继续延续前期的反弹上行走势,期价长阳飙涨,再度临近1000整数大关附近。美盘豆油7月合约被带动起来,在周一中阳上涨后,昨日周二晚间又继续长阳上涨,宣布短线的回落整理行情已经完全结束,后市短线走势将恢复前期的短线反弹上行走势,我们昨日提前给予了警惕,美豆油后市短线转为短多看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,前期内盘油脂商品就一直表现较强,在回落整理过程中期价拒绝下挫,市场下方隐隐中存在一只看不见的大手,在支撑着期价。在昨日盘中跳空高开走强后,今天周三盘中又继续红盘上涨,并且双双创出新高,短线的反弹上行率先恢复,短线多单持有中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,本波短线回落整理最为规矩的一个品种,当期价下挫到40天均线附近受到支撑,昨日周二盘中的跳空高开,宣布短线回落整理结束,后市反身上行的概率大增,今天周三早盘马棕榈7月又延续跳空高开,受全球油脂商品普遍走强影响提振作用明显,同时马来西亚令吉特的再度疲软也支持棕榈的走强,后市短线以反身后的短多观点对待。

小结:全球油脂商品瞬息变化,短线的回落整理走势已然转变,后市延续前期的反弹上行走势成为大概率事件,昨日我们第一时间提前发出警惕。后市短线短多思维对待。个人观点认为具体操作上:短线空单平仓全部逢低离场后,昨日新进的反手多单持有,后市油脂类商品仍有上行空间。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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