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Global Markets Analysis – 20 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.04.2017 周四 美豆油昨日晚间力挽狂澜阳线报收

美豆油7月合约,昨日周三晚间力挽狂澜以带下影线的阳K线上涨报收,终盘期价再度回归到横盘整理的区间内—未出现下破区间整理的下沿,短线走势仍在我们预期的范围内,我们继续对美豆油保持震荡整理的酝酿低位反弹“拐点”观点不变,在基本面严重利空消化吸收阶段的尾声,耐心等待做多人气的聚集。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日内盘大宗商品中,由于股票市场上证指数大跌,以及工业品铜锌 化工品橡胶PTA黑色金属螺纹钢煤炭等商品出现走低影响,令内盘油脂商品出现大幅下跌——恰应了那句话“城门失火殃及池鱼”,令原本就已经非常疲弱的油脂商品出现了走低,在美盘豆油昨日晚间未下破横盘整理区间之后,今日油脂商品多头主力将夺回昨日失地。

马盘棕榈油基准7月,在昨日大连商品交易所豆油棕榈油期价走低影响下,昨日马盘棕榈油也出现期价跟随性下挫,短线的下探寻底走势幅度被夸张—今日马盘棕榈油恐将走强,我们继续保持短线下挫寻支撑观点不变。

小结:昨日内盘马盘油脂商品出现杀跌行情,盘中跌幅较大。好在美盘豆油未在短线走势上给予内盘马盘支持——美豆油7月合约昨日晚间的中阳上涨,令期价再度回到横盘整理区间,我们继续保持低位酝酿反弹拐点的观点不变。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,耐心等待美盘豆油突破横盘上沿的时刻出现。

[SUMMARY]
• China and Malaysia edible oils fell yesterday, but were supported by US soybean oil.
• US soybean oil July contract inched up last night, effectively prolonging the sideways movement.
• Our outlook remains: waiting for a rebound at lower prices.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position, as we wait for US soybean oil to break out of the sideway range.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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