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Global Markets Analysis – 20 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.20 周三 看空不追空 场外观望

8月20日北京消息,临储大豆拍卖成交率略有回升,19日安徽粮油批发交易市场竞价销售临储东北大豆34.6万吨,实际成交8.35万吨,成交率为24.14%,较以前成交量有所回升。统计显示,今年5月13日以来,国家连续15周向市场投放储备大豆,已累计成交197.5万吨。

大陆内盘期货市场油脂类商品,豆油1501合约期价在6000 -5950元/吨一线震荡,已经连续3天小十字星整理,跌幅收窄。棕榈油1501合约追随马盘毛棕榈走势,继续保持短线的下探行情,盘中未出现明显止跌信号。

马来西亚毛棕榈油市场当前基本面消息相对匮乏,毛棕榈油的期价下跌主要首外围市场的影响。期货市场马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,继续维持疲软弱势格局中,在空头排列的均线系统下期价延续下行态势,密切关注本次下蹲动作何时结束。

美盘国际原油延续短线下跌走势,期价昨日跌破2012年6月29日以来的上升趋势线,长期图表上演绎长期上升趋势下的下蹲走势。美盘豆油在弱势格局下,继续保持中短线的下跌走势,下行速度有所放缓。

小结: 截止到8.20日周三,全球油脂类商品在弱势格局下继续保持下行走势,任何品种均未出现明显的止跌信号,油脂商品中短线的下跌行情延续中,我们短线角度观点继续保持看空观点不变。个人看法是在连续暴跌之后,仍然以看空不追空操作模式对待当前市场行情,当前场外观望为上策。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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