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Global Markets Analysis – 20 August 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.08.2015 周四 外围市场走软;马棕榈今天收低

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间继续中阴下跌,上周美国农业部发布的8月份供需报告的利空影响仍严重影响到美盘大豆与豆油的短线走势,短线的惯性下挫仍未止住脚步,反而盘中出现下跌加速迹象。没有只跌不涨的行情,就如同没有只涨不跌的行情一样,耐心等待本波回落结束,虽然期价重心在下移(30.00下方),但在加速过程中,空头陷阱也在逐步形成。建议继续保持期价下探寻支撑是为后期的上涨打开短线空间的观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,在美盘豆油持续下挫过程中,内盘二品种短线走势出现分化,今天周四盘面观察,其中豆油1601合约为抵抗性下跌,棕榈油1601合约为主动性下跌,买豆油抛棕榈油的跨品种套利操作更为明显。该操作手法将持续一段时间。

马来西亚方面,由于马棕榈油产量增加、需求放缓、库存增加;三者均为利空因素,再加上周边外围油脂市场的整体疲软令马来西亚棕榈油下行压力大增。马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,油脂竞争市场的疲软对该合约影响严重,在昨日周三盘中十字星K线后,今天周四早盘跳空低开低走,盘中再次出现期价走弱,虽然马币令吉特持续下跌,已经逼近1998年低点,虽马币的下跌将部分抵消马盘棕榈油的下滑,但在周边外围油脂商品不断走低影响下,马盘棕榈油将仍短线疲软为主。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线延续下跌,在美盘喋喋不休下挫情况下,内盘与马盘油脂商品恐不能自保,追随性下探将成为主流。在美盘豆油未结束下探信号之前,我们仅能以疲软观点看待内盘马盘油脂商品的短线走势。个人观点认为中长线操作者不为短线的疲软所动,继续扮猪吃虎状持仓不动。短线激进交易者或场外观望或短线逢高短空操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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