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Global Markets Analysis – 20 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.12.2016 周二 油脂类商品各个品种走势略有分化;盘面略显混乱

国际原油市场受利多消息影响(整体减产协议达成),其中纽约原油期价仍维持在高位震荡(53.00美元/桶),短线角度的反弹走势延续中。

美盘豆油3月合约,受美国大豆供应面宽松影响,以及强势美元的不利作用(美元指数已经上涨到103.00一线),造成美豆油呈现下挫的回落整理走势,虽说美豆油当前期价回落到20天均线略有止跌企稳,但也不能排除瞬间滑落到下方40天均线的可能,再由于美国临近圣诞节假期,市场需求与交投不旺,造成美盘豆油盘面上成交略显清淡。

大陆内盘方面,前期受部分油厂缺大豆以及广东东莞地区因环保问题被国家责令停产消息影响(东莞地区聚集了多家大型压榨企业),油脂企业的开开停停也造成了期货市场油脂商品的涨涨跌跌现象,豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约近期走势表现上虽然强势,但期价走势不连贯-在昨日周一早盘一度中阳红盘上涨,但下午盘中又出现冲高回落走势(缺少美盘豆油的支持)。今天周二盘面更是小幅低开低走阴K线表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,受美盘与内盘油脂商品今天周二盘面期价走弱影响,马盘棕榈今天开盘跳空低开,期价也出现了小幅下跌。

小结:国际原油高位强势震荡,美盘豆油回落整理弱势延续,内盘与马盘油脂商品一度想独立走强拉升-整体油脂商品短线走势略显分化,不能形成同步与同方向的走势,造成整体油脂商品盘面上略显混乱(内盘与马盘未能拉动而美盘豆油反身走强反而被拖累下来)。考虑到美盘豆油独自的回落整理走势已经进行了这么长时间,下方的回落空间仅有一点点,我们追随内盘与马盘反手的多单操作继续进行(中长线角度我们看多观点是一直未变的,仅仅是内盘与马盘的突然拔高而打乱了我们短线操作计划-我们本来是待美盘回落到相对低点位置,在内盘与马盘才多单跟进的)。但既然已经进行了反手操作,我们也不要有更多心理负担,毕竟美盘豆油回落整理结束后是肯定还会反身上来的。观点认为具体操作上:反手多单继续持有,以静制动的心态等待美盘豆油的整理结束。

[SUMMARY]
• As the rise of crude oil price gets briefly interrupted and as US soybean oil continues to undergo downward correction, China and Malaysia edible oils attempt to buck the trend and move up.
• Edible oils are not moving in tandem, creating an uneven market.
• Taking into consideration the prolonged downward correction of US soybean oil, we maintain our long position outlook on China and Malaysia markets.

[ACTION]
• Traders who turned long position from short may maintain position as we patiently wait for the US soybean downward correction to end.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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