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Global Markets Analysis – 20 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.02.2017 周一 油脂类商品下跌加速赶底

今天2月20日周一,是美国总统纪念日,美盘停盘一天 ,无交易。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,在上周五盘面上长阴K线急跌,盘中下跌加速迹象明显,内盘商品期货市场利空情绪蔓延(H7N9禽流感),今天周一早盘,期价低开高走小阳K线表现,当前油脂类商品短线下探寻底过程进行中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,受上周五整体油脂商品市场利空情绪影响,马盘毛棕榈油跳空低开低走,期价下跌幅度增大,今天周一盘中期价稍有止跌,恐慌情绪稍有缓解,但仍未出现明显的整理结束信号出现,恐在周五阴K线右下角仍需震荡点时间。

小结:上周五美豆油长阴K线急跌探底,短线超跌迹象开始显现,内盘马盘油脂商品追随性跟随,虽然有部分超卖迹象,但在美盘未出现明显的止跌信号前,我们不建议低位多单跟进(保守一些),等待美盘开盘后的具体走势指引。具体操作上:前期被套多单持仓不动,不建议空单追进,也不建议新多单进场抄底,我们再多观望一下美盘开盘后的具体表现(美盘豆油下挫整理 已经非常靠近下边轨支撑位置了)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil candlestick registered a low on Friday, indicating a sharp short-term decline, as China and Malaysia oils follow suit.
• Although there is some sign of overselling, we advise against entering long position before technical indicators suggest a stop to the decline US soybean oil.

[ACTION]
• Traders whose long positions were trapped by the downtrend are not advised to go short to pursue the downtrend, nor recommended to add long position. Instead, we shall observe the performance of the US market before making a decision.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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