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Global Markets Analysis – 20 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.01.2016 周三 全球油脂商品今天短线走势出现分化

昨日周二晚间,美盘豆油3月合约,期价依托下方60天均线小阳红盘上涨,短线的上扬走势延续中,盘面上未观察到任何的上行动能的衰竭,我们短线继续对美盘豆油保持短多观点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,经过本周前2日小幅红盘走高之后,今天周三盘中却意外中阴走低,表明在中长线角度的大区间震荡走势下的短线角度行情依旧走势不稳定,盘中投资人的心态不稳,些许的风吹草动就令交易者恐慌情绪加重,只要内盘油脂期价在60天均线上方,我们继续保持短多思维。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日周二盘中小幅波动震荡,短线技术图表上与棕榈3月合约略有不同,棕榈4月基本呈现在60天均线上方横盘震荡走势,今天周三盘中期价再次走软,盘中受马来西亚令吉特汇率走强的影响表现明显。我们操作理念上依旧把60天均线作为短线操作角度的多空分界岭,设置好多单止损位后暂时仍以短多看待。

小结:内盘与马盘油脂前2日率先走强,特别是内盘豆油5月合约,美盘豆油开盘后昨日晚间红盘上涨,但今天内盘与马盘却出现盘中走低现象,短线上油脂商品三地走势上出现分化不同步现象,表明在油脂商品上多空主力的分歧较大,对后市短线走势上的不确定性情绪较为严重。我们暂且保持短多观点不变,不随主力的犹豫徘徊而轻易改变操作计划。个人观点认为操作上:短线新进场多单谨慎持有,密切关注下方60天均线的支撑力度。中长线老多单以静制动继续持有 。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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