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Global Markets Analysis – 20 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.01.2017 在主力减仓之前 我们散户朋友早先一步“占得先机”

观察美盘豆油3月合约,早在前几天(1月12日)的长长上影线,就已经引起了我们的警惕–原本当天期价是长阳上涨,市场在按照我们所画图中预测的力度与斜率反身上扬中,就是1.12日尾盘时分所形成的长上影线令期价上涨幅度收窄,当天的发力上冲无功而返。这才让我们思维上引起了高度关注(才有后面的把反弹高度减半对待的心态出现,去看12日当天美大豆的长阳上涨,二者是完全不同的两种技术盘口语言),随后美豆油3月的疲弱态势–才逐步形成的我们在对应的内盘,马盘操作上建议逢高多单减仓操作的实际应对策略的形成。

对大陆内盘油脂商品,豆油,棕榈油1705主力合约来说,内盘油脂商品其实近段时间一直保持反身后的反弹上行走势(1月6日开始的),仅仅是由于美盘豆油的身心疲态,严重影响了内盘的上涨高度,因此上我们不得不在心理上折中操作一下,在不排除有更高点出现的情况下,建议逢高减仓,越涨越减的操作策略。

对马盘毛棕榈油基准4月来说, 该品种前期在美盘豆油回落整理时候,始终能保持在高位的横盘区间内波动震荡,拒绝期价出现大幅度的下挫,多头主力的积极护盘当属不易(难能可贵)。后来, 在内盘,美盘油脂商品略微出现走强带动影响下–马盘棕榈油4月更是一马当先期价上涨(突破横盘区间的上沿3160的技术阻挡),并且在前日(1.18日周三盘中)期价还创出3210令吉特的高点,我们对马盘棕榈的建议是封盘中急涨时候,逢高减仓多单–不能很好把握最高点的散户朋友的建议是一手手,一点点减持多单,使得多单减仓平均价格处于一个较高位置(其实也就没有人能恰好减持到最高价格 3210位置,这个价格仅仅是我们事后所看见的价格,能平仓在3202—3206之间点位的朋友均算是高手行列)。

小结:今天1月20日,是中国大陆传统节日春节前第7天(农历小年),我们离春节假期仅仅只剩下最后下周一个交易周,我们之所以早早就建议散户朋友逢高减持多单,并且在假期前完成所有多单的平仓了结工作的完成—就是提前谨防市场主力在假期前的平仓动作,我们尽量早于主力操作(年关口,多家大型期货公司都会调整持仓结构,不排除有抽逃资金的情况)–这会在利润上,以及在时机把握上更宽松一些 率先占得先机“敌不动我先动”而后市的事情我们留给假期回来后,再从新根据市场的最新情况而制定新的操作计划,我们本波的操作心路历程就是这个中心思想。

[SUMMARY]
• With one trading week to go before the start of the Chinese New Year holidays, we reiterate our suggestion to close-out all long positions before the holidays.
• We should be prepared to pre-emptively respond to possible actions by corporate traders.
• We shall design our new strategy after the holidays.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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