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Global Markets Analysis – 20 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.20 周日 本周回顾 (14.07.2014 – 18.07.2014) 及下周展望

进入7月份,在全球基本面疲软情绪影响,油脂类商品整体仍处于下行态势中。前期的反弹走势宣告失败,在高位未平仓的多头主力已经全部被套,行情走势完全被空头主力所掌握,表明在大周期趋势角度来讲,市场仍为下降趋势下的下跌寻底过程中,这个寻底过程显得尤为漫长。

7月14日-7月18日当周,美盘豆油12月合约,5个交易日继续保持下探走势,并在周五创出本轮下跌的新低点36.21,后在空头平仓下以36.79红K线收盘,仍未摆脱周四阴K线阴影笼罩,只有后市站于37.00-37.60之上,短线的反弹行情才能展开。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,下行态势没美盘豆油凶猛,下跌幅度略小于美豆油,并未跌破自2013年7月份以来反弹的低点,从大周期趋势角度仍属于反弹行情范畴内(9月图表走势无间断K线显得更清晰些)。随着7月份,马毛棕榈油产量减少,出口增加,总库存减少等基本面影响下,技术盘面走势呈现抵抗性下跌,下探寻底的迹象较美豆油更为明显。从本周5个交易日短线来说,5天来横盘整理,走出一个小平台,下周密切关注该平台走势的动向,若继续横盘则继续场外观望,当平台被成功上破之时,可考虑多单跟进。

中国大陆内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油走势略有分化,其中内盘豆油1501合约走势追随美盘豆油创出新低,而棕榈油1501合约追随马盘棕榈油多一些,未跌破去年7月底的低点, 并且短线上5个交易日也同马盘棕榈油走势类似,呈现出拒绝严重下挫走势。

综述:从大趋势长线角度来说,油脂商品仍处于下降趋势当中。其中我们自去年8月以来所保持的观点改变为筑趋势性大底后的反弹行情大观点,截止到今天这在棕榈油上仍然成立。从中线角度来说,在2014年6月25日-27日开始的下跌行情,我们已经提前提醒所做反弹多单全部出局,并部分要求反手做空,成功避免了本轮下跌所带来的损失。当行情下跌到本周,从短线角度来说,下方的空间逐步收窄,我们已经建议平空出场观望也有好几天了。

下周走势就到了敏感时期,特别是从短线角度来说,在技术超卖后,后市的短线反弹行情又成为我们新的操作思路。抛开大趋势技术角度,单从波段技术理论角度来说:每一波的下跌是为后市的上涨做准备;每一波的上涨是为后市的下跌做铺垫,而其中的波峰和波谷的有序延伸变化才是构成趋势角度走势判断的基础,而组成波段的更小单位是每根K线。K线、波段和趋势这三者之间的包容变换是组成市场行情的基石。在具体研究上我们把三者从大到小来分析预测判断。在具体操作上我们又要从小到大来规避市场给我们带来的即时性风险。在我们场外观望的时候正是我们头脑有时间来思考的时候。从短线来说,行情走到这阶段,下周存在变盘的可能,后市向上反弹的技术要求越来越强烈。个人看法是操作上:我们短线激进操作者多单可先进场接盘,我们会再第一时间报告。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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