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Global Markets Analysis – 20 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.07.2016 周三 油脂类商品短线看多观点不变;多单继续持有

美盘豆油12月合约,期价继续不温不火的短线震荡运行,整体期价波动不大,未出现凌厉的上涨反弹,也未出现凶猛的急挫-从更大周期分析,当前美盘豆油可以划分为二大浪运行结构,从2015年8月28日至2016年4月8日为第一大浪(反弹上行),从2016年4月8日至今为第二大浪(回落整理),当前美盘豆油12月恰好处于二浪回落的尾声阶段,是短线反弹走势之后继续运行第二大浪最后的结尾?还是当前短线的反弹正在酝酿第三大浪的主攻上行?从目前的短线角度来说,我们此刻还不能妄下结论,需要观察后市美盘豆油的上行力度与幅度以及量能是否有效配合-暂时我们把当前美盘豆油12的短线走势定义为弱势反弹更为合适些。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,前面我们提到过二者在短线走势上略有不同,豆油追随美盘走势更为明显,而棕榈油在短线反弹走势上略强于内盘豆油-这同二者当前的基本面情况也是分不开的。最新数据显示:中国国内豆油当前商业库存总量为107.87万吨,高于上月的85.37万吨增幅26.36%,也高于去年同期的96.50万吨,内盘豆油当前的库存保持持续回升态势对内盘豆油走势有拖累嫌疑。另外国储大豆上周五时候开始拍卖,国家临时存储大豆计划销售30.1万吨,实际成交30万吨,成交率99.74,由于起拍价格较低,成交非常火爆,未来几周将继续国储抛售-每周均为30万吨,后期抛储总量大概有300-400万吨,这对内盘大豆与豆粕甚至豆油均形成一定的价格压制。而棕榈油虽然也受国家抛储影响,但由于当前国内各港口棕榈油库存仅为29万吨不到,为历史最低库存(昨天我们报告中谈及到此问题),因此内盘棕榈油短线走势上略强于内盘豆油走势也就不奇怪了。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,受中国大陆棕榈油库存下降利多因素影响,内盘棕榈油走势很多程度上提振马盘毛棕榈油的近期表现,从上周末开始马盘棕榈油已经6连阳K线表现,短线角度的反弹上行走势表现良好,随着期价的不断震荡走高,前期7月5日向下的跳空缺口正在被弥补中,我们继续短多思维对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线的反弹上行走势延续中,虽然各个品种的反弹幅度,力度不尽相同,但期价不断的震荡走高成为不争的事实,在技术面未走坏前,我们继续以超跌之后的短线弱势反弹观点对待,观点认为具体操作上:前期单边多单继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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