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Global Markets Analysis – 20 June 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


6.20日 周二 油脂类商品期价短线走势出现波动反复 但尚不能确定反弹结束

据最新消息报道:中国商务部代表团(成员人数不详)将在7月初前往美国签署大豆采购协议,并且承诺采购数量将超过2012年度采购的1340万吨以上。签约地点为美国爱荷华州首府得梅因市(签约时间 为7月13日。。。 特朗普上台后虽与中国贸易争端升级 但他任命的美国驻华大使 特里.布兰斯塔德却与中国关系悠久 此人就曾担任爱荷华州州长)。该消息利好美国大豆销售——–美国大豆总产量的四分之一是被中国采购的(每年大概价值为200—300亿美元),当然了,来而不往非礼也—–美国农业代表团也将在随后的9月份访问中国。 抛开基本面消息的利多刺激——单从技术面分析,美盘黄豆连此前短线期价一直处于地位后的反弹上行中,当前期价临近上方的60天均线位置,而美盘豆油7月期价也临近5月份前高33.40附近,在此关键技术位期价出现反复也是我们预料当中的事情—–昨日晚间美盘豆油7月期价就出现了冲高回落走势(见高点33.38后阴K线收盘),因为在5月份就是在该高点位置期价开始下挫的,因此上在该位置多空主力拉锯争夺现象是在所难免的——后市期价是上破前高?还是前高受阻? 这一期价反弹高度问题就成为我们关注的首要重点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,昨日周一红盘上涨表现,今天周二盘中阴K线小跌,期价追随美盘走势,同样出现了期价反复现象。从整体上说,内盘本波反弹高度还不到位,我们暂以谨慎短多态度对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日周一早盘高开,然后形成了冲高回落,终盘以带上影线的小阴K线收盘。今天周二早盘又跳空低开,期价出现了下跌,但尚不能就此断定反弹已经结束(期价小幅波动反复现象),表明马盘棕榈油市场投资人士心态也较不稳定,但印度尼西亚棕榈油库存下降预期将抵消马来西亚棕榈油下跌幅度,谨慎的短多观点对待。

小结:美联储主席耶伦(鸽派代表人物被全球金融人士戏称“鸽后”),前几日一反常态,发表了一系列“鹰派”加息言论,受此影响美元指数短线低位反弹上涨,从较长中线角度来说——美元加息“开弓没有回头箭”恐将持续一段时间,美元指数中期角度还将保持强势。前几天报告中我们曾偶尔提过一句,在短多油脂商品反弹同时,可短空贵金属黄金,形成跨品种的套期保值操作模式,最近几日贵金属黄金受美元上涨影响而持续走低——-双保险操作成立(前几日没有进场该操作的朋友,现在也不建议追进了 )。单对油脂类植物油商品来说,美盘豆油反弹高度略强一些(到技术关键位了),而内盘马盘油脂商品反弹高度略低(反弹不充分),鉴于此种现象 ——我们保持2种操作心理准备:部分激进型敏感操作者可逢高部分减持多单,谨防美豆油前高技术位受阻回落。而稳健型交易者暂且多单持有,美盘豆油尚未出现明显回落下挫迹象,仍不排除再次上攻前高的可能。破是不破?就需要我们多观察几天,也就是说此刻又到了内心纠结时刻,我们依旧保持“一颗红心两手准备” 心理状态,进可攻退可守为上策。

[SUMMARY]
• The strength of the rebound of US soybean oil seems too strong while that of China and Malaysia edible oils appears weak.
• We have yet to see clear sign of retracement of US soybean oil nor do we rule out an upward breakthrough.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders reduce long position in case of a technical retracement.
• Passive traders may retain long position at the moment.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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