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Global Markets Analysis – 20 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

20.03.2017 周一 油脂商品等待多头人气聚集

美黄豆连美豆油今天周一亚洲电子盘此刻 均阳十字星表现,短线期价未延续下跌,盘中止跌迹象略微明显,在严重超跌之后,我们继续期待期价触及低点后的反弹上行走势,不严重看空下面空间有多大。

内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1705主力合约,内盘豆油短线走势紧紧追随美盘豆油,呈现出期价下挫态势,当前国内各大港口豆油总库存大概为118万吨左右,考虑到3月份各大油脂加工厂集体停工检修,后市国内豆油库存压力不大(逐渐消化库存过程)。当前国内棕榈油各大港口的总库存为55.90万吨左右,后期随着天气逐渐变暖,棕榈油消费将逐步打开空间。因此上内盘油脂商品当前期价存在一定心理支撑,我们以超跌后的短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月(或5月),由于4月份马来西亚将开始执行7.5%出口关税(3月份为8%的出口关税),出口关税的降低将在一定范围内支持马来西亚棕榈油出口,这对马盘棕榈油间接形成利多支持。从上周末马盘棕榈油的短线走势观察,当前期价经过4连阳快速上涨,期价已经触及前高附近 ,棕榈油短线需要凝聚一下做多人气,待美盘出现触底反弹之时,便是马盘棕榈油突破前高之日(3.6日),我们短多观点对待马盘棕榈。

小结:美元指数短线下挫回落,全球大宗商品整体压力减轻—–以贵金属黄金 白银为代表的包括有色金属,铜,锌,化工商品等等均出现不同程度的期价走高。对油脂类商品来说也不列外,并且棕榈油短线走势略强于豆油,我们后市短线仍以多头人气凝聚观点短多思路对待。操作上:前期短线空单全部离场后,剩余所有新老多单继续持有(我们有信心有能力,一定要夺回老多单上的盈利),与此同时关注美盘豆油的后续支持。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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