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Global Markets Analysis – 20 November 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.11.2015 油脂商品继续短线震荡筑中线大底

本周5个交易日美盘豆油1月合约,持续呈现出横盘震荡走势,期价整体变化不大,下跌无动能,但上涨同样无动能,当前的短线探底走势始终不能给出明显的方向性指引,市场陷入模糊状态-市场被一只无形的手在底部区域托着,但又没有抬举。这令油脂类商品市场散户操作难度变大。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油当前主力合约已经来到1605合约上,二品种在日K线图表上前低(2015年8月-9月间)附近存在一定的技术支撑,在该低点附近主力空头未敢盲目打压,但多头主力也未曾大举抬升,内盘短线市场当前存在纠结操作心理,处于两难阶段。今天周五早盘,豆油与棕榈油均呈带下影线的小阳K线, 该K线语言对多头有一定的心理安慰。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,当前期价在回落到下方60天均线位置后,期价跌幅开始变小,60天均线的技术支撑作用开始体现,当前短线马盘棕榈油同样呈横盘震荡模式,在等待美盘与内盘油脂商品的走势变化。从马盘毛棕榈油基准5月合约观察,当前的短线回落仍在前期大幅反弹之后的横盘整理的成交密集区内,2浪也好或4浪整理也好,马棕榈5月在日K线图表表现上更支持多头主力继续持仓。

小结:全球油脂商品,在美盘短线走势变化不大前提下,在美国大豆收获结束阶段,整体油脂商品仍在震荡中筑中长线的大底,仅仅是在短线角度方面,在基本面供需未发生大的转变情况下,油脂市场短线走势较为纠结与模糊,市场人气较为涣散,不能形成单边的清晰的期价波段性运行轨迹,在此种情况下,继续以静制动思维对待当前油脂商品短线走势,底部底价区域不盲目做空,无仓散户朋友在市场横盘震荡时期暂时观望。已经持有多单的操作者继续多单持有,不被市场的小幅无序波动所干扰。后市仍以震荡探底后的反弹上行观点看待,建议关注市场下周新的变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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