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Global Markets Analysis – 20 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.11.2017周一美盘油脂商品“风火两重天”表现

因担心“拉尼娜”现象加强会导致阿根廷天气变得炎热干燥,在南美巴西阿根廷大豆种植期间(天气炒作抬头),市场投资人士的担忧情绪加剧。上周五晚间,美盘黄豆连 美盘豆粕期价长阳飙涨,但美盘豆油1月合约(或12月 )却依旧保持下探走势,美盘大豆豆油走势出现分化不同步现象,我们继续保持对美豆油的下挫整理短空观点不变。

今天周一,内盘油脂商品大豆豆粕追随美盘黄豆连期价走高(内盘豆粕主力合约期价长阳上涨),而内盘豆油棕榈油1801主力合约期价却出现下探走低,当前较低的豆油 棕榈油价差,令中国大陆豆油挤占了棕榈油市场(替代作用),内盘豆油棕榈油市场当前市场表现较为疲软,短空的下探思路保持不变。

近期马来西亚令吉特汇率持续走强,比年初上涨7.2%左右,这对马来西亚毛棕榈油带来不利影响,另外马来西亚棕榈油产量的增加以及棕榈油出口量的放缓,均对马来西亚毛棕榈油带来负面影响。马盘毛棕榈油基准2月(或1月),近几日期价下挫幅度较深,今天周一早盘期价再度跳空低开——盘中下跌加速迹象开始显露(已经出现2–3个跳空缺口了 ),我们继续短空思维。

小结:美盘内盘油脂商品中,大豆豆粕与豆油短线走势出现分化,不排除存在市场主力,多大豆空豆油的“跨品种套利”行为发生,当前油脂类商品上各方主力操盘手法怪异,我们则继续保持平常心态不为所动,继续以短空下探思维对待(不被主力忽悠)。后市继续关注下探空间大小。具体操作上:在保持短空思维操作模式前提之下,继续保持我们上周末的,逢低空单分批量减仓,操作模式的心理准备,内心记住一条“不急不贪不燥”。

[SUMMARY]
• In US and China edible oils, soybean and soybean oil are not synchronized.
• We do not rule out to long soybean and short soybean oil.
We maintain our short-term short outlook due to lack of the buyers in the market.

[ACTION]
• Traders are advised to reduce short positions when the prices are low and pay close attention to the downward momentum of the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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