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Global Markets Analysis – 20 October 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


20.10.2014 周一 下跌的压力仍远大于上行的动力

进入到10月份美豆收获的季节,美大豆的收获进度将近过半,在强大产量预期新豆上市压力下,如果需求方面没有得到强劲改善,则此时间段油脂商品的下跌压力要远大于上行的动力,当前阶段市场心理层面正是此鲜明写照,对于此点我们内心深处要有一定清醒认识。

从美盘豆油12月合约技术分析观察,上周最后三天的期价下滑中,K线形态为2阴夹一阳,短线存在向下突破态势,期价已经来到原横盘整理区间的下沿部位,该部位是否支撑有效尚等待市场的走势的验证。

今天周一早盘,大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油低开低走,特别是豆油1501合约,期价已经下破原成交密集区的下箱体,短线技术形态已经完全走坏,后市仍有新低出现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,在走势上明显强于豆油,呈现出抵抗性下跌整理,当前期价维持在40天至60天均线之间,40天线的支撑效果尚待观察。但考虑到豆油商品仍处于下挫压力中,恐对棕榈油带来不利影响。

小结:全球油脂类商品在短线走势上仍处于弱势格局下的下探寻支撑行情当中,仍存在进一步走低的可能。短线上我们继续保持下跌整理观点。个人观点认为无仓者继续场外观望。部分短线激进操作者继续逢高短空操作思路,密切关注下方何处位置为关键技术有效支撑位。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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